Thursday, May 28, 2009

Supply Shock

Here is a 30 minute bar chart of e-mini day session activity. The market broke sharply this morning and volume was the highest downside volume seen for the past two weeks (red arrows). This looks like a supply shock and I think it is telling us that the e-minis are on the way down into the 855-65 zone. If this is the right interpretation midpoint resistance near 896 (purple dotted line) should hold.

The high of the day has been seen and I estimate that the low will be near 877 (blue rectangle).

2 comments:

PM said...

Hi Carl,

My model tells me a close below 879.20 today would confirm that the highs are in place and that the trend is now downward. At this time, I see no reason not to believe the rally since March 6th was nothing more than a bear market rally, but time will tell.

Thanks.

Kindest regards,

PM

CMaurice said...

OT: I see the book is on the way. Looking forward to it. Congrats Carl, and thanks for all the work, Charlie.

PS I won't be offended if you hold the comment if the book to be a seekrit.