Guesstimates on October 31, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1260-1278. I think that the October 4 low will hold for the foreseeable future and the market is headed above its May 2011 top.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000. Support is at 1.3950

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I now think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I now think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Guesstimates on October 28, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1264-1289. I now think that the October 4 low will hold for the foreseeable future and the market is headed above its February 2011 top.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I now think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I now think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

update

I now believe that the move above the August 31 top is a genuine upside breakout. The implication is that this market is now going above the May 2 top which is at 1370 in cash.

sell the news

Here is a 10 point box, 1 box reversal point and figure chart of the December e-minis going back to the July high.

As you can see the market this week has broken above the top of a 10 week trading range. The question now is whether this portends a move to 1500 or whether instead it is a false breakout.

For the time being I am going with the false breakout scenario. The breakout has been accompanied by news of the temporary resolution of the European debt crisis, and in my experience it is better to sell bullish news than it is to buy it. I might also note that at this morning's high the cash S&P has just kissed its declining 200 day moving average. finally, as you can see on the chart, a point and figure count across the base area associated with the October 4 low shows a potential rally to 1280-90, not far from today's high in the ES so far of 1273.25.

If I am right about this action being a false, upside breakout then the e-minis will soon drop back below the top of this trading range which stands at 1230. This in turn would be the beginning of a move to 950 or so.

If instead the market starts to accept prices above 1230 as fair value over the next week or two I will have to reassess my longer term bearish scenario.

Guesstimates on October 27, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1249-1275. I think the next big move from here will be downward and will take the market below its October 4 low.

QQQ: Next big move from here will be downward.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is now at 1.4175. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 26, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market has reached the 1240-50 target zone. The next big move will be downward. Today's day session range estimate is 1224-1241.

QQQ: Next big move from here will be downward.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3950. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 25, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market has reached the 1240-50 target zone. The next big move will be downward. Today's day session range estimate is 1236-1254.

QQQ: Next big move from here will be downward.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3950. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 24, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market has reached the 1240-50 target zone. The next big move will be downward. Today's day session range estimate is 1230-50.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3950. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 21, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is headed for 1240-50. Today's day session range estimate is 1213-1233.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3950. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.

update

I think the fast rally from today's 1192.50 low means that the e-minis are headed for 1240 now and that 1192.50 ended the break from 1229.75.

rally nearly over

Here is a daily chart of the cash S&P 500 which appears on my chart page over at StockCharts.com.

You can see that the S&P is rallying back towards its declining 200 day moving average - a bear market configuration. At the same time it is trading above its 50 day moving average (green wiggly line). When this happens during a bear market rally that rally is nearly over.

I have drawn a bearish trend channel on this chart and you can see that the upper channel line right now is at 1240. That is where I think the rally which began from the October 4 low will stop.

Once this rally is over I expect to see the S&P to resume its bear market and to duplicate the length of its first decline (blue rectangles). That would carry the market down to 975 or so and put it near the lower channel line.

Guesstimates on October 20, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1194-1214.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3950. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 19, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1212-1237.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3950. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 18, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1181-1201.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3950. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 17, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1203-1223.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3950. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 14, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1205-1223.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this market is headed for 1.3950 before it turns lower. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

update

Here is a daily chart of the December e-minis going back to the May 2, 2011 top. As you know I think the S&P is in the middle of a bear market which will probably drop the average to 950 or so.

Last week the market put in a low at 1068 and has since staged a fast rally. I think this rally is going to stall near resistance which stands between the August 31 top at 1224.00 (green dash line) and the June 16 low of 1246.50 (red dash line). The target area is delimited by the green oval.

My best guess is that the rally top will be in by the end of October. At that juncture I think the market will begin its next down leg of this bear market. The first one dropped the S&P about 300 points. If the second one starts from 1250 and drops the market another 300 points it would carry the S&P to 950.

Guesstimates on October 13, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is now headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1185-1205.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think this means that the market is headed for 1.3950 before it turns lower. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 12, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is now headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1190-1210.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro moved past the 1.3750 resistance level overnight. I think this means that the market is headed for 1.3950 before it turns lower. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 11, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is now headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1170-1190.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro rallied past 1.3550 resistance and will probably move up to 1.3750 before resuming its down trend. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 10, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is now headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1157-1177.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro rallied past 1.3550 resistance and will probably move up to 1.3750 before resuming its down trend. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 7, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is now headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1155-1175.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is approaching support in the 1.30-1.31 range. Resistance above the market stands at 1.3550. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

Update

A little while ago the e-minis hit 1156, the repetition target I cited for the market in my last post.

Since that post was written I have changed my mind about the extent of this rally. I now think the market is headed for 1250 before the bear market resumes. Why?

First of all, on my chart page you can see that the 5 and 10 day oscillators of the advancing issues numbers exhibited bullish divergences at the low a couple of days ago. That low at 1068 was clearly a shakeout low below the August 9 low of 1071, and the subsequent rally has been a classic lock-out rally, one with relatively small reactions which drives relentlessly higher.

Second, I think there is quite a lot of short term bearish sentiment among traders - not enough to end a bear market but sufficient to trigger a substantial bear market rally.

So I think the market is headed back to the top of its August-September trading range and will probably stage a false upside breakout near the end of this rally. After the rally is complete I expect the ES to resume its drop to 950.

Guesstimates on October 6, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is now headed for 1156 or so. Today's day session range estimate is 1131-1161.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is approaching support in the 1.30-1.31 range. Resistance above the market stands at 1.3550. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

another rally - then down

Here is a daily bar chart of the December e-minis. As everyone knows, the market has been making it maximally difficult to back one's views, whether bullish or bearish, because it has been putting in big, fast, but brief rallies and breaks for the past two months as you can see on the chart.

As you know I am longer term bearish and expect to see the ES visibly below 1000 by the end of next year's first quarter. In the meantime the situation in Europe dominates all calculations, and since it seems to change every few days I expect the market's erratic behavior to continue for the foreseeable future.

Yesterday's low at 1068 looks like a shakeout low below the August 9 low of 1071.50. The last rally was 88 points and carried from the September 23 low at 1102 to the September 27 high at 1190. A rally of this size from yesterday's low would end at 1156 (blue dash rectangles) and this is what I am expecting now.

However, this rally is only an interruption of a longer term downtrend. The first leg down in this bear market carried the ES down 290 points basis the September contract. A similar drop from the 1223.75 top on August 31 in the December contract would carry the ES down to 933 (purple dash rectangles)

Guesstimates on October 5, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday's late rally turned the short term trend upward and the market is now headed for 1156 or so. Today's day session range estimate is 1111-1141.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is approaching support in the 1.30-1.31 range. Resistance above the market stands at 1.3550. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.

Guesstimates on October 4, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1055-1095. The ES traded at its August low of 1071 this morning, but I don't think the drop is over yet. Next support is at the August 2010 low of 1037.

QQQ: Now headed below 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is approaching support in the 1.30-1.31 range. Resistance above the market stands at 1.3550. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

November Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance at 1670. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00.

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is underway. Support is at 345.