Thursday, October 20, 2011

rally nearly over

Here is a daily chart of the cash S&P 500 which appears on my chart page over at

You can see that the S&P is rallying back towards its declining 200 day moving average - a bear market configuration. At the same time it is trading above its 50 day moving average (green wiggly line). When this happens during a bear market rally that rally is nearly over.

I have drawn a bearish trend channel on this chart and you can see that the upper channel line right now is at 1240. That is where I think the rally which began from the October 4 low will stop.

Once this rally is over I expect to see the S&P to resume its bear market and to duplicate the length of its first decline (blue rectangles). That would carry the market down to 975 or so and put it near the lower channel line.

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