Friday, October 28, 2011

Guesstimates on October 28, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1264-1289. I now think that the October 4 low will hold for the foreseeable future and the market is headed above its February 2011 top.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 94.

GLD – December Gold: I now think gold is headed for 2100.

SLV - December Silver: I now think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.


SS76 said...

Carl, you are all over the map, but I like that you are willing to change your views as the market speaks. I think the short term ES will be down, and agree that the October 4 low will hold, but it will go there before going back up. Too much uncertainty with the EFSF deal to sustain a further climb right now....Silver to $50? Yes, but back to $30 first I think.

stig said...

I think you don't understand the EU crisis

It's at early stage
Nothing has been solved

The EFSF leveraged is a bazooka toy
What if France will lose its triple A?

Gernmany is the only country that has to save 17 countries

This is simply ridicolous

The real solution for this catastrofic situation is to print real money but the BCE can't do it

Anonymous said...

It is virtually impossible for Crude to trade down to the $55-60 dollar area and (at the same time) have the S&P head back up to take out the May high at 1370.

I have no idea what makes you think that such an inter-market relationship can be rationalized, especially given your outlook for the Euro ( back up to 1.5000 ).

janet said...

Thanks for the update...have a GREAT and relaxfull weekend....Janet

Nav said...

However, this time around feels different vs. back in Jul and the “pain trade”remains to the upside.
It doesn‘t appear that people are "very short" outright but many may have more cash than they would like (so are "synthetically short").

beetlejuice said...

Carl, I think this one VERY big bull trap.
Nothing has changed. Eurozone agreements have solved nothing. Greece have defaulted and Portugal are next.
Markets will wakeup to this next week.
Take a look that the DAX chart. That's one scary looking chart. The DAX has been the leader of this bear market since it began.$DAX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p69061866293

AlexaStock said...

Great stuff, I enjoy visiting.

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
i realise you faovr price over time from what i have seen anyways reading your posts over the past few years . and ill admit price is saying higher prices likely . time though is making a stand right now and following monday we will see which is correct . the cycle into this weeks end as well as this month end is a series of low to low to high counts . we also have a lindsay top to top count from the low on july 18th . if there was a time for a top it is now .
weather it holds true or not remains to be seen .
if this fails to be a top of importance then i would have to favor a high in jan/march 2012
yet either way the mid to late 2012 time period should be a low based on many cyclical measures . this leaves me in a bit of a quandry to my longer term bullish view into the year 2018 ( hence a low mid to late next year would point to a high in the year 2018 at much higher levels then today )
this can also be considered a sideways movement from the may 2 2011 high which implies we would have to consider ( assuming this is a top ofcourse) counting the begining of the bearish cycle in terms of duration near today and not from the high in may 2011.
that would also give a bit of guidance towards the 12 year 3 month to 12 year 8 month time frame from the jan - march 2000 top
hope this makes sense .
bottom line for me : next weeks price action and where price is come nov 25th which would need to be a low of sorts