Friday, October 21, 2011

Guesstimates on October 21, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is headed for 1240-50. Today's day session range estimate is 1213-1233.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3950. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.


Win said...

Please pardon the repost, Carl. Not sure if you saw this on a previous thread. I understand if you choose not to respond, but wanted to be sure you saw this:

Here is a daily chart of the ten year note.$TNX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p12980502984

It is making what I believe is a bull flag. If you agree, and from your daily guesstimates it appears that you do, then why are you bearish on equities?

In the past you have explained that rising rates signal the market's expectation of future growth. Why is it different this time?

Carl Futia said...

different time frames

Denali92 said...


GREAT call on the 1240 - you were one of the few bloggers calling for this move up here - WELL DONE!


Win said...

Thanks, Carl.

pb said...

As always Carl - you are the man.

Great call on the market!

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
Just a thought is all at this point looking at weekly charts
on dow.
week of :
march 2 2009 ( low )
june 28 2010 ( low )
oct 24 2011 ( high ? )
bottom bottom top count .
week of :
march 14 2011 ( low )
july 4 2011 ( high )
oct 24 2011 ( high ? )
month of :
feb 2009 ( low )
june 2010 ( low )
oct 2011 ( high ? )
July 18 2011 plus 104 calendar days = sunday oct 30 th
july 18 plus 102-113 =
oct 28th-nov 8th
all are aligned for what its worth .
seasonal bias on stock market is
up 85% of time from nov 7 to jan 16th .
there is also a bear cycle that begins oct 31 and runs into jan 6th . market not stretched yet is getting a bit overbought .
major swing period runs from oct 3jan 6th . unless dow going above this years highs i would expect next week to be about it for a reaction high .
we will see soon enough .
11983-12028 should be stiff resistance on the dow if this will be a swing high .

Win said...

BTW, I still think we're going to 1170-1175 ES, and am positioned accordingly. It's hard for me to trade against your views.

SS76 said...

Carl, what are your thoughts for this coming week? How will you play it?

Thinking once it may go as high as 1254 before the major pullback (previous neckline of the head and shoulders).....would you agree? I think that is when I will buy the VIX (T.HNU on the TSX)..

What do you think?