Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Guesstimates on October 19, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market is headed for 1250. Today's day session range estimate is 1212-1237.

QQQ: Now headed for 59.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is at its historical low but will soon start a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is at 1.3950. The euro is likely to drop to 1.20 over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

December Crude: The market is now headed for 55-60. Resistance above the market is at 90.

GLD – December Gold: Gold bounced off of support at 1550 but should hold resistance which I now think stands at 1710. Next downside target is 1400.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is now headed for 25.00. Resistance above the market is at 33.75

Google: Downside target is 375.

Apple: Upside target is 435 was nearly reached. An extensive downtrend is about to start. Support is at 345.


Win said...


IMO, we are in a new bull wave, Wave 1 or 5 in Elliot terms. This should extend to 1274 or so, and end next Monday or Tuesday.

Graph1159 said...

Hi Win,
Could you describe the context of your wave count a bit more?

TeslaSignals said...

i think we are done with the 4th wave .. and market is kind of hitting brakes at 1229.. it can go down to 1170 this time .. and then might come back to 1220 again ..we will see sell off in the few days , as aapl the market leader missed..

Win said...

Sure, Graph. Sorry, there was a typo in my previous, rushed email. I meant Wave 1 OF 5 in Elliot terms. I probably shouldn't have used Elliot terminology, because I am not an Elliot expert. However, I see strong parallels between the current move up off 1068 ES and the move up off 66 ES in 2009. Sentiment is similarly bearish. Fundamentals are strong, and looking stronger - look at homebuilder sentiment and new home construction as just one of the fundamentals. The fed has promised to not raise rates for 1.5 years, and the spread between corporate bond yields and dividends IS super high. (

Certainly there is a bear case as well, and Carl has articulated it wonderfully. It rests primarily on the notion that the European and U.S. central banks will not provide the liquidity necessary. I see this as possible, and am keeping an open mind. However, I am trading my scenario. I am 90% long.

I believe the current chop could be labeled Wave 4 of Primary 3. I'm not sure. If so, Primary 2 was pretty short, I know. We may go down as far as 1180, before Wave 5 of 1.

Win said...

Further, regardless of my bullish longer-term bias, I currently plan to reverse short some time next week.