Wednesday, October 05, 2011

another rally - then down

Here is a daily bar chart of the December e-minis. As everyone knows, the market has been making it maximally difficult to back one's views, whether bullish or bearish, because it has been putting in big, fast, but brief rallies and breaks for the past two months as you can see on the chart.

As you know I am longer term bearish and expect to see the ES visibly below 1000 by the end of next year's first quarter. In the meantime the situation in Europe dominates all calculations, and since it seems to change every few days I expect the market's erratic behavior to continue for the foreseeable future.

Yesterday's low at 1068 looks like a shakeout low below the August 9 low of 1071.50. The last rally was 88 points and carried from the September 23 low at 1102 to the September 27 high at 1190. A rally of this size from yesterday's low would end at 1156 (blue dash rectangles) and this is what I am expecting now.

However, this rally is only an interruption of a longer term downtrend. The first leg down in this bear market carried the ES down 290 points basis the September contract. A similar drop from the 1223.75 top on August 31 in the December contract would carry the ES down to 933 (purple dash rectangles)

5 comments:

dave said...

a triangle completed yesterday

a brand new bull market may be in hours of its infancy

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XBZCkQCChgc/Toyl1RTGTrI/AAAAAAAAAoM/gMJyOG7mP6g/s1600/terminal%2Bstructure.PNG

Joge said...

Carl, don't you think if the market breaks 1137 it could possibly rally to 1191?

janet said...

Thanks for the update!! Much appreciated.

Harry said...

11% more bears than bulls now suggests the short trade is full:

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/investors_intelligence.aspx

Graph1159 said...

Hi Dave,
Are you assuming that the August crash was an aberration that should not have happened, and therefore the triangle can exist despite the lack of overlap between wave d and b?