Monday, October 03, 2005
Here is an updated daily chart of the December eurocurrency futures.
I have completely misread this market for the past month. Now I think that the bear market has resumed in the sense that it is unlikely that the 126.50 post Katrina high will be broken. However, I don't think the market is ready to emerge decisively from the trading range of the past four months.
Instead I am looking for a low near the bottom of the current bear market box near 117.80 and near the bottom of the estimated short term box (in blue) near 117.50.
Once this low develops I think the market will rally 500 to 600 points from its low.