Thursday, October 06, 2005
Here is an hourly chart of the December S&P futures.
In this morning's guesstimate I said that the 1194 level was a reasonable target given that the market had yet to show any sign of slowing its drop from the 1239 high on October 3. In the event the market dropped well below 1194 this afternoon and still shows little sign of slowing its drop. From this I now conclude that the reaction low will occur near the bottom of the current box at 1180.
Meantime the S&P futures have rallied sharply from the day's low at 1186 but will have a hard time moving much above the 1/2 point of the box near 1202. I think we will see the low near 1180 tomorrow on the employment number news or early next week. Once the low occurs I will be looking for a move to new bull market highs.