Thursday, October 06, 2005


Here is an hourly chart of the December S&P futures.

In this morning's guesstimate I said that the 1194 level was a reasonable target given that the market had yet to show any sign of slowing its drop from the 1239 high on October 3. In the event the market dropped well below 1194 this afternoon and still shows little sign of slowing its drop. From this I now conclude that the reaction low will occur near the bottom of the current box at 1180.

Meantime the S&P futures have rallied sharply from the day's low at 1186 but will have a hard time moving much above the 1/2 point of the box near 1202. I think we will see the low near 1180 tomorrow on the employment number news or early next week. Once the low occurs I will be looking for a move to new bull market highs.


Unknown said...

Hi, I respect your research. But. Do you ever consider that SPX might not go to 1300+ any time soon. At what point would you reconsider your stance if at all.

Carl Futia said...

When people stop telling me how wrong I am!

Anonymous said...

carl,i am not saying you are wrong..i think it is just you are over confident..the TREND has changed...they closed below 200 day moving average..even if it rallis it is not going to hold..

i am sorry, but you got to realize the reality..the SHORTS WON this time..

Anonymous said...

Market about to EXPLODE to the upside. Carl is wrong in that he has underestimated the upside potential of this market, as have 100% of other participants on Wall Street.

This type of shakeout is a prereq. to any monster rally.

Now if you'll excuse me, my trainer has arrived in time for my afternoon stretch.

Anonymous said...

Closing below the 200MA is not an indication of the trend changing - it has happened three times since late '03 and the market has continued to rally. A better indicator of change of trend is when the 50MA crosses below the 200MA. I seriously hope Carl is right - I'm still trying to unload a few things above S&P1245.

Carl Futia said...

The short answer is "not much".

I plan on posting on the 3P and DH development in the next few days.