Friday, October 14, 2005

Guesstimates on October 14, 8:55 am ET

December S&P Futures: The rally on this morning’s news in electronic trading is not likely to carry the market past the ½ point of the current box at 1202. I think the odds are then better than even that the market makes it down to 1167 or so before the big rally I am expecting begins.

December Bonds: The rally on this morning’s CPI news will probably carry to 113-20 or so. More than that would be very bullish. The move down from the late August top is now as long as the initial drop from the early June top. I still think a strong rally into the 121-123 range will start soon and if so the market should not drop below 112-00.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes will probably rally to 109-20 or so before stalling. I think a move to 116 has either begun or will begin not far from yesterday’s low at 108-26.

December Eurocurrency: The 121.80 level is still resistance and the next low should be in the 117.50 to 118.50 range. After that a rally to 124 is likely.

November Crude: Prices are headed down to 57.50. The 64.40 level is still resistance in the meantime.

December Gold: Support is 468-470 and the next step up should carry to 492.

Google: Support is now at 282. The bull market in GOOG is far from over and a move above 320 will be the next big development.

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