Friday, June 16, 2006

Guesstimates on June 16, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: I think the market ended the drop from the May 5 top at 1229 Wednesday. 1266 resistance was hit and slightly exceeded yesterday and today I think the market will probably react to support near 1255.  Resistance above yesterday’s high is at 1275. A move to new bull market highs is underway.

September Bonds: The bonds have nearly reached support at 106-28 but the move down looks like only the first phase of a three phase correction. I expect a rally to 107-20 or so followed by a third phase drop to 106-04. Over the next few weeks the market should reach the 110-111 zone.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes stopped at 104-30 support yesterday and will probably stage a second phase rally to 105-16. Then the drop from 106-04 will resume and end near 104-18. I expect the market to rally over the next few weeks into the 107-108 zone.  

Euro-US Dollar: I still think this market has a good shot at reaching the 126.90 level before it drops to 124.30 which is the next short term downside target. An extended drop which should carry below 116 is underway.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen should hold support around 114.30 and then rally to 117.00 or so. The market is in the early stage of  a move to 130.  

July Crude: The market should reach 66.50 soon. Resistance today is again at 70.50.

August Gold: Gold has completed a three phase rally to resistance and now will probably drop to a more important low in the 530-35 range.

July Silver: Silver has completed a three phase rally to resistance and now should drop to a more important low in the 920-30 range.

Google:  Support is at 380 and I think GOOG will soon rally to 410. I expect to see the market reach the 450-500 zone this summer.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

You've been really hot lately. I appreciate your analsis. What do you think of MSFT here?