Monday, June 19, 2006

Guesstimates on June 19, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: I think the market ended the drop from the May 5 top at last week’s 1229 low. Support today is at 1261 and I think the market will rally to 1282 in a day or two. A move to new bull market highs is underway.

September Bonds: The bonds broke 106-28 support Friday so now I think the market is headed for 106-04 before it rallies significantly. Over the next few weeks the market should reach the 110-111 zone.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes broke below 104-30 support Friday and so should continue down to 104-16. I expect the market to rally over the next few weeks into the 107-108 zone.  

Euro-US Dollar: I think the downtrend has resumed and that the market will soon reach the 124.30 level. An extended drop which should carry below 116 is underway.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen is on its way to 117.00 short term resistance. The market is in the early stage of  a move to 130.  

July Crude: The market should reach 66.50 soon. Resistance today is again at 70.50.

August Gold: Gold has completed a three phase rally to resistance and now will probably drop to a more important low in the 530-35 range.

July Silver: Silver has completed a three phase rally to resistance and now should drop to a more important low in the 920-30 range.

Google:  Support is at 380 and I think GOOG will soon rally to 410. I expect to see the market reach the 450-500 zone this summer.

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