Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Guesstimates on June 28, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: Yesterday’s 1255 support level was broken and is now resistance today.  I am looking for a move down into the 1240-43 zone and then a rally to 1282. I also think the market ended the drop from the May 5 top at last week’s 1229 low. A move to new bull market highs is underway.

September Bonds: The bonds will probably rally a bit further to 106-12 but then I will be expecting a move down into the 103-104 range.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes will probably rally a bit more to 104-20 but then a drop into the 102-103 zone will resume.  

Euro-US Dollar: Support is the 125.40-50 zone and I suspect that a rally to 126.45 will develop today or tomorrow. Nonetheless, the next big swing from here will be downward to support at 124.30. An extended drop which should carry below 116 is underway.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen  now appears ready to drop to 115.50 or so. The market is in the early stage of  a move to 130.  

August Crude: The market should stop near 72.90. After this rally I expect a break below 68.00.

August Gold: Resistance today is at 590. Gold has now completed a three phase rally and will probably drop to a more important low in the 530-35 range.

July Silver: Resistance today is at 1036. I am expecting a drop to am important low in the 920-30 range.

Google:  Support is at 390 and I think GOOG will soon rally to 430. I expect to see the market reach the 450-500 zone this summer.

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