Friday, June 30, 2006

Guesstimates on June 30, 8:50 am ET

September S&P Futures: The market has reached and moved a bit above the 1282 resistance level. Today I see support near 1272. Next short term resistance above the market is at 1295. I think the market ended the drop from the May 5 top at the June 14 low of 1229. A move to new bull market highs is underway.

September Bonds: I think this market is headed downward.  Next support beneath the market is at 105-04. Resistance is again at 106-08 and any strength above that level is likely to switch me back to the bull side on the bonds. Failing that I shall stick with my view that the market is headed down into the 103-104 zone.

September 10 Year Notes: Resistance above the market is at 104-18 while support is at 103-28. I still think that a  drop into the 102-103 zone is underway but strength above 104-18 can change my mind about this.  

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has broken decisively above 126.50 resistance so I conclude that the trend has turned back upward. It looks like we are headed for the 131.00 level. Support today is at 126.60.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has decisively broken below support at  115.00 so I conclude that the market is headed down to 111.50. I still think the yen is headed for the 130 level over the next year.

August Crude: This market has been much stronger than I have expected. I still think that the 75.35 top will hold and that the next big move will be a drop below 68.00.  

August Gold: Resistance today is at 603 and I still think that gold is about to drop into the 530-35 range.

September Silver: Switching to the September contract. Resistance is at 1088 and I am expecting a drop to an important low in the 920-30 range.

Google:  Support is at 400 and I think GOOG will soon reach 430. I expect to see the market reach the 450-500 zone this summer.

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