September S&P Futures: I now think yesterday’s rally was only the second stage of a three stage drop from 1270. This implies that the market is headed for support at 1243. The odds are 50-50 that it will reach a slightly lower target near 1238. After this low is established the next step up should be to 1282. I think the market ended the drop from the May 5 top at last week’s 1229 low. A move to new bull market highs is underway.
September Bonds: I think support at 106-04 has held and that the market is headed up to 107-24. Over the next few weeks the market should reach the 110-111 zone.
September 10 Year Notes: Support at 104-16 has held and the notes are now headed back up to 106-04. I expect the market to rally over the next few weeks into the 107-108 zone.
Euro-US Dollar: The move up from yesterday’s low looks like the third phase of a three phase rally which should end near 126.80. The next step down will carry the market to 124.30. An extended drop which should carry below 116 is underway.
Dollar-Yen: The yen has bounced of support near 114.30 and now should rally to 117.00 short term resistance. The market is in the early stage of a move to 130.
August Crude: The market should reach 66.50 soon. Resistance today is again at 70.80.
August Gold: Gold has completed a three phase rally to resistance and now will probably drop to a more important low in the 530-35 range.
July Silver: Silver still has a shot at 1066 but that would complete a three phase rally to resistance and be followed by a drop to a more important low in the 920-30 range.
Google: Support is at 380 and I think GOOG will soon rally to 410. I expect to see the market reach the 450-500 zone this summer.
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