Wednesday, August 20, 2008

E-minis

I just added to my long position at 1271.50, making me 200% long at an average of 1270.75

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

What stop are you working for this trade?

thanks DH

Anonymous said...

you are an idiot... look at SPX and DJI both broke the rising bearish wedge already... IWM has 5 wave down already so is start going down big... there nothing can save this market unless another intervention by government which will just drag this downtrend longer... They need to let the market correct by itself and stop intervention only then it will hit bottom...

Tim- said...

you never mention volume other than times when a price was met or exceeded in the overnight sessions. are you sure this market has conviction in any direction? seems like now is a tough time to trade regardless of which direction you see it

Anonymous said...

To "you are an i####"

There is another place for the emotionally-challenged - the yahoo message boards. Please stay over there.

I love patterns, I wish I knew enough of stock patterns to contribute - much to learn.

Anonymous said...

Gee, the low of the day was 1260.50 just where the ”idiot” called support. If that’s being an idiot I sure wish I was one too.

Carl, thank you for all your generosity in sharing your views and trades.

Tim Mack

Anonymous said...

An idiot is one that has the lower IQ limits, which allows them to call other people names.

Anonymous said...

just keep in mind the emotionally challanged will always come to the
comment section to defend there
directional bias and try to prove there side with sometimes little
statistical records . other times
they will repeat the standard re gurgitated noise , the 1260 level is important and below there the 1247 to 1238 level is very important . yesterday was the cycle low due date . so far were holding 1260 , thisis a positive
developement but we are not out of the woods yet , im lightly long the dow and lightly short the qqqq
not my usualy style of trading
yet untill i see how this mkt performs im leaving the door open
for what ever is to come .
stick to your work carl and if you can manage to take the heat at times let the emotionally challenged weep from time to time

Anonymous said...

Carl I hope I am wrong but since we have not penetrated 1260 yet means in my book a fake towards 1255 or so.
I think you have been a bit premature
with the ES entries

Susn

Anonymous said...

The Gov't needs to save this market with a bailout! What is taking them so long??? Bailouts are great for the economy just like tax rebates. People will say I'm wrong but they will be left wondering how I can be wrong when the Dow rallies 1000 points on the bailout. Make sure you are long for the bailout announcement of fannie and freddie and lehman brothers. The market will hold support near these current levels until the bailout announcement.

Anonymous said...

Take a look at the chart on thekirkreport.com SPY has been swimming up the downtrend channel. SPY is dead centered on the middle of the downtrend. Unless it closes in the lower half, I would stick with the trade.

Anonymous said...

I read where if the government bails out fannie and freddie it will increase the deficit by 51% overnight. I think that they should just be allowed to say GOOD-BYE! Their 1.4 cent on the dollar capital was abominable! Kind regards, Janet

Anonymous said...

Big piture: We've been in a downtrend now for the better part of a year. There has been so much bad news thrown at investors that anyone who wanted to get out of the market has had more than ample opportunity.

Small picure: We're in a countertrend rally that probably still has some legs to the upside. We still have more room to the upside before we reach the top of the SPY downtrend channel.

At some point, the overwhelming bearish sentiment is going to get squeezed. The bear pen is almost full and it's getting smelly.

Anonymous said...

Everyone is too bearish! Janet -- that's the point why should fannie and freddie have any loss reserves at all. They have free insurance from the government. I think is was nice of them to have any capital cushin at all. The share holders are taking all the loss and the taxpayer for giving them free insurance. but so what? Everyone's house went up in value because of it. I don't see the problem with the gov't injecting unlimited capital into any company that needs money. The gov't agress with me which is why they bought part of the bear stearn's portfolio to get a sale to go through, and why they just passed a bill allowing the gov't to inject an unlimited amount of capital into fannie and freddie. We are abandoning capitialism which is fine as long as the market does not go down. The gov't should buy stocks to keep the market up if they have to thats why we have a gov't. They should give the fed and the PPT more power to manipulate the markets so we don't have to suffer. Therefore there will never be anything to worry about.

Anonymous said...

he is not an idiot but, i dont understand why he didn't just place a buy limit @ 1260 that would be more logical since he did make a good call on the 1260 area as a support zone

Win said...

anonymous - If he had placed a buy limit at 1260, he wouldn't have been filled. The low of the day was 1260.50.

Anonymous said...

Everyone is expecting another market sell off, therefore it may not come. A bull market loves to climb that proverbial wall of worry, and certainly the banking worry is nothing new; we've already been talking about it for 18 months, it's old news and I think the market already has it all well factored into price. Therefore, if the unknown is not as bad as everyone now fears, then we may well see a major bull rally from these levels.

Kindest regards,

PM

Anonymous said...

Love your blog.

I think the market will go down, but if I were not traveling so much and had the time I would go long with you right now.

great blog, hope you make some money, but I have to respectfully disagree as I think the market is headed lower

sandy allred said...

Hi Carl,
Please let us know how you came up with the 91 and 206
point boxes on your charts.
Thanks...

Anonymous said...

You should not have been called an idiot but I agree with the market sentiments of that writer.
I think you are totally wrong. Look at the Nasdaq - the last bastion of the bullish -breaksdown decisively. This is a long term bear market and for there too be 40% bullish (that is todays reading is amazingly high).
Quick order to 1200 about to happen followed by new lows. Surely its hard work being long? and worrying as well as dangerous?
Your better call was on gold and silver and even a modst position would have made you far more money than these snp positions.
I fear you will owe a number of people a few bottles of wine soon.
Best wishes Catherine

Anonymous said...

Warch eur jpy or even better gbp jpy - it is agreat indicator to show stress in the system. Japaense repatriate quickly and hedge funds / bank also have to unwind this very crowded trade(because of the 0% interest carry trade) and raise cash.
Catherine

Anonymous said...

Dear Carl
How can you be 200% long ? Did you take a loan above 100% ?
What money management do you have?For me it sounds like you are taking a big risk with the 200%long position! Or maybe it is so that your total capital consists of 500%,1000% or 5000% ?
Please clerify this, afterall you are an mathematishian, if you have your % wrong maybe you got some other numbers wrong aswell :)
Thanks for the blogg.