Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Guesstimates on August 13, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still 200% long from an average price of 1251.25. I think the e-minis will reach 1325 over the next week or so. The market bounced off of 1288 support late yesterday but this morning it looks like it will continue down to 1275 before beginning the next leg up. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support is now at 46.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bonds will make it back to 117-16 before resuming their downtrend towards 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: I think that the notes will make it up to 116-08 before resuming their downtrend toward 108. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 890. 

SLV - September Silver: I think the market is now headed for 1250. Resistance is at 1750. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 


Unknown said...

Hi Carl,
Is it possible to have (hourly/Daily/Weekly) charts for QQQ (or Nasdaq100), Gold, Silver and Oil similar to those published for ES.

Anonymous said...

I think EURUSD is headed for 1.46 and 1.44 in the longer run but i think an interim reversal starting tomorrow is likely and rather sharp. I do not expect prices to close below 1.48 on a daily basis before a rally has occured. Crude oil is headed for 96 while 144 is strong resistance, in my opinion. I think gold has topped out and is headed down from 987 onward for 697 USD. Good trading all !MC

Win said...

The Qs are indeed encountering resistance around 47.5, which they will have to break if the SP is to advance to 1325. Apple seems to be carrying the Qs on it's back for this run last week. I wonder how long it can last.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your insight Carl! This pullback is a great buying opportunity! The recent weak news about the financials could hopefully get us an emergency rate cut to get things going. Best of luck!

Anonymous said...

this is the question if 1270-75 will hold .... if not than I think we will drop all way down in the low 1200s

Anonymous said...

ok futia you got me. I was the one posting bearish comments 1 week ago., I think I made it like 16 out of 17 or something. It's obvious the recent advance has staying power so i went long the spy @129.60 ditched at 130.62 and reloaded @128.95. 1325 should be a no brainer I think we even may do the 1360 thing. I am still not so sure about this market 2-3 months out but like I said you got me. You were right

Carl Futia said...

Dear 6:09 pm:

I didn't "get" you, the market did. There is nothing personal about about what the market does or does not do.

Anonymous said...


If we reach the 1325 level, where do you think the market will go next...simply higher or will it correct down to 1275 level? I noticed the other day (Monday) the market reached intrady roughly 1314 and then moved lower for the next two of the frequent posters (PM) stated that 1317 was the next reaction point...and that seems to be what happened. So do you think we go up to 1325 and small correction then we move higher, or we break thru and move higher and find support at 1300 - 1310. I suspect that we will climb to 1350ish reach an overbought market and move lower 100 points or so..

Anonymous said...


Also wanted to point out the following..Note the ascending triangle on the daily s&p since July 14th...We broke above that level on monday, and subsequently corrected back down to the trend line and bounced off that line today at 1275ish...if we move decisively (and above the 50ma)thru that triangle we may find some support at 1300, and continue to move higher, find over head resistance at the 100 day MA(1336ish)