Thursday, August 14, 2008

Guesstimates on August 14, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still 200% long from an average price of 1251.25. I think the e-minis will reach 1325 over the next week or so. Support is now at 1275. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. Resistance stands at 47.50 but I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.   

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bonds will make it back to 117-16 before resuming their downtrend towards 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: I think that the notes will make it up to 116-08 before resuming their downtrend toward 108. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 890. 

SLV - September Silver: I think the market is now headed for 1250. Resistance is at 1750. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 


Win said...


I think this Op-ex might actually prove to be painful for Option sellers - the Qs aren't relenting so far! Quite surprising.

Anonymous said...

Some may be concerned of the horrible inflation numbers this morning. High inflation is good for equities! Plus with Bernanke in charge, we don't have to worry about rate hikes. Treasuries are rallying! A rate cut is still more likely regardless of the inflation numbers! Thats why bad news on jobless claims and high inflation numbers are good for the market. The stock market is already recovering! It bottomed yesterday and should start to rally hard in the next couple of days! Noticed todays instant recovery! Buy stocks!

Anonymous said...

With the 30 year bond yield looking to head well below 4% I think you projection for the S&P to hit 1500 is conservative using the fed model. I'm targeting 1625 minimum. With stocks and treasuries rallying hard today together, this is am extremely bullish scenario.

Anonymous said...

What is so optimistic in USA? I don't see anything optimistic in this country and I don't see a lot of good companies!!!!

Anonymous said...

well this is still a technical baby-bear market rally but it is usually where most of fundamentalists purely concerned on statistical data and care very little about market behaviour miss the boat. Look at the chart with an open mind and heart and feel what it tells you, then react. :-) MC

Anonymous said...

you could use me as a contrarian, but do you think S&P can make it to 1325. looks like 1313 could be it. also, cramer is out calling for july 15th as the bottom on CNBC. if you want to use that a contrarian indicator why we may have more downside.