Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Guesstimates on August 12, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am still 200% long from an average price of 1251.25. I think the e-minis will reach 1325 over the next week or so. Support today is at 1288. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support is now at 46.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.  

TLT - September Bonds: I think the bonds will make it back to 117-16 before resuming their downtrend towards 109. 

September 10 Year Notes: I think that the notes will make it up to 116-08 before resuming their downtrend toward 108. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 154.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 120 level is now resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 750.  Resistance above the market is at 890. 

SLV - September Silver: I think the market is now headed for 1250. Resistance is at 1750. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 


Anonymous said...

Carl, Just wanted to leave you a brief note and tell you that I appreciate your market thoughts. Your simple, easy-to-understand work puts head and shoulders among most of the "Professional" Analysts out there who have to bury their thoughts beneath layers of garbage to make themselves seem more intelligent. Again, in difficult times, your clear and concise analysis is greatly appreciated!

Anonymous said...

I think EURUSD is headed for 1.46 and 1.44 in the longer run but i think an interim reversal within the next two days is likely and rather sharp while 1.4800 is strong support. I do not expect prices to close below 1.48 on a daily basis before a rally has occured. Crude oil is headed for 96 while 144 is strong resistance, in my opinion. I think gold has topped out and is headed down from 987 onward for 697 USD. Good trading all !MC

Anonymous said...

With todays confirmation of the bullish move in treasuries and interest rates set to plunge, the stock market is days away from skyrocketing. Buy the dips!

Narayana said...

Carl, the 5- and 10-day moving averages of the NYSE A/D are showing very clear divergence with price. This is a strong sell signal, no?

Win said...

A/D price divergence - thanks Narayana.

Anonymous said...

Carl, looking at your charts on stockcharts.com. Do you normalize the overbought, oversold levels? I have noticed that over the past year the avg # of issues traded daily on NYSE has dropped by 150 to 200.