Friday, August 22, 2008

Guesstimates on August 22, 8:20 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I am 200% long at an average price of 1270.75.  The 1270 level is now support. I think this swing will carry the market up to 1340. I also think we are in the early stage of a move to 1500. 

QQQ: Support is at 46.00. I think the Q’s are about to take a step up to 51.00. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.  

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds are headed for 118-28. 

September 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for 117-20. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend in the euro is downward and I think the market is headed for 135. Resistance above the market is at 150.00. 

Dollar-Yen: The market should reach the 112.00 target soon. Support is now at 106.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: I think that the market is headed for 100. The 122 level is resistance. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 700.  Resistance is at 840. 

SLV - September Silver: Silver has reached my 1250 downside target but I think that any rally from here would halt near 1600 and be followed by still lower prices.  Next support is at 1100.   

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I think this market is in the early stages of a move which will carry it over 750. 


Anonymous said...

Morning Carl...fellow traders. It is amazing indeed how few comments you receive when your trades are working Carl. Too many posters want to be critical and not learn that you are providing a valuable service that stresses proper analysis, position sizing, and stop placement. As I always state...economists make poor traders and I seldomly listen to people that want to give me a whole rundown of economic data etc. when trying to justify their position. Keep up the good work reading your blog.

Anonymous said...

The surge higher is starting today. A Government backed Lehman brothers takeover is a certainty this weekend. The bailout of Lehman this weekend is one less problem we have to worry about. If they bailout Fannie and Freddie this weekend also, I expect the S+P to rally over 100 points next week!

Larry said...

Morning Carl, I too find your blog to be extremely helpful and enjoyable to read.

I noticed that you lowered your expectation for gold from 750 to 700. I am curious as to your long-term projection for Gold and Silver. It's obvious that over the short/intermediate- term you expect prices to head lower. Do you believe the bull market in the PM (i.e., Gold and Silver) is over?

Thanks for sharing your analysis each day.

Anonymous said...

good moring carl
just thought id note my short
term cycles while they to have
only 78 percent accuracy since
may are now pointing higher into
sept 2 then a higher low is due
mid sept , and longer term cycles
pointing higher into may june 2009
and then higher again into mid 2010
so there is now some confirmation
today , and so far it is looking
like the 60 minute chart of the spx
is now in point 11 of a new 3 peaks domed house pattern
point 10 being the 1260 low
technically point 10 was to high
yet my take is were heading higher
yet were not out of the woods yet
with the potential for a stepper decline after spet 2 in to mid sept from there more upward presser
will be expected from me .
good luck