Thursday, July 01, 2010

Guesstimates on July 1, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1010-1035. I expect the drop from 1216 to end in the 1000-10 range. I expect a rally of 25-35 points from yesterday's low at 1030.25. After that a further drop to 1010 or so is likely. In the meantime any strength above 1055 would mean that the low of the move down from 1216 has been seen and that a new up leg in the bull market has begun.

QQQ: Support is at 42.00. The next move up will carry to 54.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 87.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 430 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Unknown said...

Hi Carl,

I would appreciate if you can explain how do you decide whether its a Bull market correction or a start of a Bear market. i am not as experienced as you, but please advise on some criteria to differentiate between the two?



vs_trader said...

my estimate for today were
Possible buy zone 1015-1000
Possible sell zone 1040-55

I have picked some intra day long at 23.75 but I still remain the bear camp. 1080 is the first line in sand for me for the bulls to show their horn.

sandy allred said...

Mkt opening flat this AM. Energy and emerging mkts look the best. Dollar is doomed through November. Up, up and away!

C said...

Bear market seems to be when the market starts up in the am & finishes down in the pm, day after day, just as has been occuring, day after day. If we are upon a double dip recession, which many think so, then we are definitely in a bear market which is taking SP500 to around 900.

Stasi said...

1006.6 done bought all I can get, here we go!!

Unknown said...


Dont see buyers stepping in. what will be the trigger for you? We have broken the range 1100-1040 (60 points) - does it imply we go to 980? 1040-60



sandy allred said...

I believe Carl forecast a low of 1010 today which was breached during to panic washout to 1006. The next development he mentioned was a rally of 25 points or so which may not peak until tomorrow...I guess.

sandy allred said...

It appears the selling today is the climax of the sequence which began on June 21. Due to the panic nature of the selling today, I would not expect any significant reaction until Tuesday's high in the 1080 area.

Unknown said...


Please answer my questions. need your advise.



Urban Carmel said...


My recollection is that you proclaimed a new bull market when the slope of the 200 day MA turned positive. It is now flat and will likely turn negative unless we rally very quickly to 1120. Is this the correct interpretation?

I always appreciate your site and analysis.