Friday, July 16, 2010

Today's low is now estimated to be 1064


Laurence said...

Interesting that Ticker Sense takes a reading of bloggers as to market sentiment. The latest, from this week is bullish 7.1%, bullish 50%. Quite extreme by historical standards.

smcneill said...

This keeps us on the down channel that has been in place since April 27th. how is this looking bullish?

Harry said...

The charts and the economy are bearish. It is what it is.

Unknown said...

Best to trade both sides of the market rather than stick to one train of thought. Need to be flexible and react to what the market shows you. It's like the tide, easier to go with it than to fight it. Play both sides and you make twice as much. Too many people sticking to one side of the market and not playing what the market is showing you.

Unknown said...

Hi Carl,

Sorry to see yuour long Today not bearing fruit.

I have a good news though.
At 12.40 ET I have a feeling that the daily low is already in, and preliminary running of the Weekly predictor presents consistently strong Bullish results.

So your Bullish stance still have some more time to run, even if I think not much, maybe to run up again to 1111 - 1114 or so.

Joe Papczun

Larry said...

Looking at a six month chart of the SPY, a head and shoulders top suggests a low of under 100. That would equate to an ES level below 1000. Best of luck.

Nav said...

BoA disappointment coincided w/the market running into some technical resistance; the tape has really been trading pretty flattish since Tues as the STT-induced rally (starting 7/7) starting to run out of steam; the twin STT/Samsung preannouncements from last week prompted a lot of short covering and some buying among quicker traders. However, the earnings releases out this week (INTC, AA, CSX, ASML, etc) all were viewed as liquidity events (i.e. people taking profits on the strength). There were some larger long-onlys that nibbled over the last few days, but people on the whole were reluctant to stocks higher until there is technical resolution (i.e. through the upper-end of our trading range of 1110-1120) and/or we are further through earnings season (we haven’t even scratched the surface yet). While we are on pace for the steepest decline since 6/29, we are just moving back to the middle of the trading range that has confined the tape since mid- May. That said, desk noting that shorts becoming a bit more confident laying out exposure (first “real” disappointment w/the BoA and failing at technical levels).On the downside, people watching 1070-1071 as the next levels; 1040 is the real important line in the sand for bulls though.

Thanks for so many up dates but the day was rough.Never Mind!

Have a great weekend with your loved ones!

Unknown said...

A trader should always be looking at risk-reward ratio when trading as well as probability. There are many factors in trading but keeping it simple is best and always play what the market shows you. React to markets and keep your mind open to both sides of the market as the market will move both up and down and you can make money on both sides. It's also much more fun that way and trading should be fun.

spycharter said...

I still think it's bullish overall. Obviously the first attempt ES/SPY makes at cracking the downtrend line will fail. That's why everyone went bear crazy this past week. SPY 106.5 is the 38.2% retracement from 101.1 to 110.1, so I'm looking forward to beginning the next leg up early next week.

Nav said...

S&P 500 companies are sitting on $1.05T in cash ($3.2T with Banks), or as % of assets now 11%. This is the highest level since 1955. Companies are hoarding the cash due to excess caution and w/FCF running at $800b, this balance is growing.
Currently, the total US population is 308 million (growing about 3mm per year). Of this total, 223 million are over the age of 19, which one could assert is the addressable population for housing (can afford to buy) and automobile purchases. In our view, it is helpful to consider the outlook for the growth of this population pool.
2) The Adult Population is growing 2.6mm per year and should be 13.1mm higher by 2014. This is the largest 5- year increase since 1984. This implies as many as 8mm additional homes need to be built over the next 5 years.
3)What is important to keep in mind is that current starts of 575k are not much ahead of scrap rates of housing, which are estimated to be 300-400k per year, or 1/3 of 1% of housing. Homes are scrapped due to fire, flood, dereliction, abandonment, etc. In fact, many real estate experts believe the scrap rate over the next 5 years could be well above the historical levels due to homes being built in locations that are no longer practical.
On this relative value basis, the S&P 500 equity prices trade very attractively compared to corporate credit prices and yields:
1: HY prices vs. S&P 500 P/B, implies S&P 500 P/B ratio of 2.7X or 1377 in S&P 500. 2: IG bond yield of 4.91% implies S&P 500 P/E of 19.8X, or 1361 in S&P 500.
Steep Yield curve suggests low likelihood of double-dip recession

Spycharter,I am bullish too.It seems
correction to me.
Today was rough,tough,UGLY FRIDAY!

catherine said...

Charles Nenner on cnbc
Dow 5000 within 2 1/2 years.