Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Guesstimates on July 6, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1015-1035. The ES dropped to 1003 last night. I think this market is scraping bottom and the worst I see on the downside is 990. Strength above 1050 would mean the low has been established and that a new up leg in the bull market has started.

QQQ: Support is at 42.00. The next move up will carry to 54.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 87.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 430 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


sandy allred said...

Have to agree with your take on the current flock of bears. Your forecast of 1300 by year end looks probable.

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
bare with me this is a long post
your point is well taken with your contrarian post . but i dodnt think we will see a new high in the stock market averages this year .for now the dow has resistance in the 9907-101013 range . there was a cycle low due july 2nd 12th asn looks like the earlier cycle proved worth while .
the 60 minute 3 peaks domd house worked so a bounce definitaly makes sence . the next cycle high would july 20-28th .and the 10 day advance decline did show bullish divergence as of fridays close .
i made my case for a late july early august peaks back in late may . it is too soon for me to
state im correct yet we will see how the market movs and ill make my decision when the time comes .
longer term i think we are in for sluggish trading as the average investor stays out of the market
the 200 day moving average is at the least flat lined and looks to be attempting to turn down .the cross between the 50 day and 200 day i am questioning as a potential fake out with a bullish move if prices then cross above that cross . that places 10360 on the dow as the key price for the bears . i have doubts the market gets up there yet we will see .
another thing i have noticed when looking at moving average cross overs is the time of the cross or test ( no cross but a touch of each line ) tends to be a turn. so the bounce is of no surprise to me right now . long term i dont think the lows of march 2009 will be broken . 8000 was my downside target into november im not going to change this level just yet but
i might be a bit to pesimistic .
keeping an open mind for now
thanks for keeping your site an open platform , i do appreciated your work , however even though i know you look at the long term picture it would be great if you could post why you think what you do in the broad picture .

Urban Carmel said...


Should we read anything into the fact that the 200 day moving average of the SPX is now declining for the first time since turning positive last year?

Many thanks as always.

yrichter said...

Nailed the day's range. Amazing.

C said...

As someone with only basic knowledge of technical analysis, it seems to me that if SP500 breaks down thru 1010'ish, then next major support is around 940 & there is no way that 990 will hold. I mean if there are no buyers at 1010 then there seems to be very little reason for there to be buyers at 990. Off course if economic data worsens & the government/fed do nothing to pump up the system & with tax increase next year then it seems 940 will eventually fail & SP500 will head down to 880'ish where I'd look at buying. It seems to me that markets are now driven by fear which might continue to drive markets down further regardless of valuations because there is a unclear slowdown coming. Fear will probably be at its greatest as we approach 880 where some buying might be useful. I'd prefer not to see SP500 go to 940 nor to 880, however at this stage those levels seem inevitable during the next 4 months, after which a nice bull leg up might occur. Personally, I'm in a major dilemma because I have a core shareholding and will probably sell most of our shares if the SP500 breaks down thru 1010 as I do not want to risk going down to 880. Difficult market times ahead I think!