Monday, July 26, 2010

Guesstimates on July 26, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1092-1108. The market is headed for 1145-50. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Initial target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.

September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Nav said...
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Mohan said...

Is aapl stock can go any higher - it is at very high resistance at 260?

Nav said...

Tuesday, July 27th: US (S&P/Case-Shiller Index, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed,ABC
The M&A market also is helping risk sentiment (esp. the SNY/GENZ story). The market had a tough time w/the 200day MA (1113) for most of the day as investors, esp. long-only MFs, are reluctant to chase stocks higher, but the tone of the tape has improved meaningfully in the last few weeks (dips are being viewed as buying opportunities) and the market did manage to close at its highs (we closed 2 points ahead of the 200day after staging a strong rally for the last 60 min of trading); the next big level to watch will be 1118 (the closing highs from back in June). Two pieces of news that slipped out late in trading today helped contribute to the late-day rally: the Basel committee published its new proposals for Basel-3 @ 1pmET (the first reaction to the proposals was positive for banks) and Moody’s (@ 2pmET) said that the net impact of the fin reg reform was positive for bank standalone credit rating (although some banks could see downward ratings pressure b/c of the removal of gov’t support). The SP500 has closed in the green for 12 of the last 15 sessions and for Jul, the major US bourses are up ~8% ConsumerConfidence); Eurozone (German GfK Consumer Confidence); Other (Australia Conference Board Leading Index, Switzerland Consumption Indicator).

dcatlowpj said...

When does it become Futia-like contrary to the trend to short this market, Carl?

Now the Choir sings "long." Choppy waters thus.