Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Guesstimates on July 13, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1075-1092. A new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low. Initial target is 1100 or so

QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Initial target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 87.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 430 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Nav said...

1075--1092 sound great!
* Fundamentals – the cold hard facts that indicate what the market is worth.

As an investor, the goal is to find the “sweet spot” – that is, where negative sentiment keeps prices low on companies that boast strong fundamentals.

And guess what? That’s exactly what we had – a situation that offered one of the best buying opportunities of the year.

The question is: Did you shake your fears and jump in?

1. It’s the Economy, Stupid!

While the occasional negative number gets the media’s attention, there are plenty of signs that point to an economic recovery.

* Manufacturing: Take the Institute of Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing sector data, for example. It showed expansion for the eleventh consecutive month. Breaking it down further, 13 of the 18 industries within it reported growth.
* Housing: While the bears argue that housing starts dropped recently, they’re still up over 4.4% from last year. And if you back out the data from the South, housing starts actually rose last month. No one is interested in building a new house in the Gulf area right now, which skewed the overall number. According to the Case-Shiller Index home prices are back on the rise.
* Railroad Freight: The Association of American Railroads reported last week that freight traffic has hit its highest level since 2008. This is an important leading indicator, as increased freight shipping means increased spending from businesses and consumers.

There we just had YOU,Dr.Carl Futia!
God Bless You!

Bill said...

Most european markets are upwards of 2%. The S&P will also rise more than 2% by the end of the day. I will close above 1100 today.

Dave Narby said...


Are you ever going to provide some analysis on your gold and silver projections?

I'm asking because fundamentally and technically you predictions are completely backwards. Both have been in a bull market for ten years!

With respect,

Dave Narby