Friday, July 30, 2010

Guesstimates on July 30, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1080-1098. The market will resume its move to 1145-50 today or Monday. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Initial target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.

September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


siricor said...

Surprise, surprise, Carl called it right. Carl, you are the King! Thanks again for all your guidance and insight!!!

andi said...

i was in agreement w/ carl about ST bounce to 1120-1130//
too premature to call for 1300 yet...

Nav said...

Amazed Not atall !
I am used to it now!
1092---1101 were the mkts moves all within your lines.
Livelong..we need you,man!
Great weekend w/your loved ones.
(package includes joy,happiness,fun,...and rest too.)

Edwin said...

what more can I say? da'man.

raven said...

Carl YOU BE THE MAN.The Square root
boxes have been amazing during this run.

Now we see if this Bull Run gets
blown Up by certain non linear events in the next week.

All congrats !!

dcatlowpj said...

It is indeed tough to call a direction...the ranges are sometimes right on here and at other times very close and at other times, we have parabolic shifts. I can say this clearly: I would not be able to call direction from day to day and got hit big time this past week on a long....played the SSO. Anyway, I sure HOPE (prayer assumed) that we do resume. I read other reference data and some others are calling for a possibility for a reach back to close to 1000 or lower. Scary for longs...futures are a better play right now and take price action very seriously.

Nav said...

The coming week will be pretty quiet – there are some more earnings coming, but the next big data points for tech will come w/the Jul-end Q reports (which CSCO kicks off on Aug 11).
While the American Q2 earnings season was a strong one, the US was more of a bystander in Jul, trading higher in sympathy w/Europe and China. As investors look into Aug, they will lose the benefit of a few tailwinds that helped in Jul.

sandy allred said...

Have to abandon my view that Spy will reach 115.5 by 27 August in favor or Carl's prediction we are now in an upswing. The early AM break of SPY 109.5 down to 108.9 provided a sufficientyly bullish base to propel us to 115 by 11 August. So instead of a low it appears we will be on high by then.