Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Caboose on the Bear Train


Here is a shot of the cover of the current issue of Newsweek magazine.

It depicts President Bush in a bubble, protected from and out of touch with the outside world. Not a very flattering portrait! The stories inside the issue are even more derogatory.

As I have pointed out in many of my contrary opinion posts the nation's attitude towards its political leaders and particularly the attitudes of its elites are an important and valuable measure of general market sentiment. It is hard to dispute that the mainstream media have been bashing Bush ever since his presidency began and this Bush-bashing intensified tremendously this past summer and fall. From this I concluded that the US stock market had quite a bit more to go on the upside.

Well, I think the bear train has pulled away from the station. The last car on the train, the caboose, is this Newsweek story and I think from here on out the media will start acknowledging that the country and its economy are in pretty good shape. This will set things up for a bull market top.

2 comments:

Uncle Jack said...

So let me get this straight.

Newsweek is the last one to the table bashing Bush for your contrary argument to go long, thereby making them a coincident indicator calling for a top, either that or a leading indicator to go short.

The Speculator said...

yes you are right carl is a leading indicator in being contrary to the coincident indicators he uses. Remember I like first to make money and second to be right.