S&P Update

Here is an updated 5 minute bar chart of the December S&P e-mini futures. I commented on this chart earlier today.

The market rallied to 1375.75 from the day's low so far at 1370.00. I then expected a drop below 1370 in fairly quickly. Instead the S&P's have since dropped 4 points from 1375.75 in the same amount of time that it took the market to drop 10 points this morning.

This action makes me suspicious. It is an example of a dog that isn't barking, i.e of the market not behaving as it normally does if it was soon to drop to 1364.

Here is another comparison that makes me suspicious. Note that the break from Friday's high at 1378.25 was fast and carried 15 points. The break from today's high was also fast but dropped the market only 10 points. This also is a tentative indication that the sellers in the 1375-80 range are running out of ammunition.

Since I am basically bullish on the market's underlying trend and expect to see a 1400 print later this year I now think that the market is telling me that it will hold above the 1370 level and soon rally to 1381 and possibly higher to 1387.