Here is a 5 minute bar chart of the e-minis covering yesterdays day session and today's thus far.I thought the market would rally during the first hour so I bought a small reaction from the open which occurred at the red arrow. However, the market then dropped more than 5 points below the open, and with current levels of volatility this made it likely that a more substantial reaction down close to yesterday's close (green line) was likely instead. So I got out on a small rally. The subsequent second lower top is another indication that the very short term trend has turned downward.
The volume on this break from the open has so far been moderate - less than on yesterday's early break at the same time, and less than the volume of the correction of yesterday's afternoon rally. So I think the odds are good that this is a normal correction of the uptrend rather than a supply shock.
I do expect the support near the green line to hold and anticipate another attempt to get long near there.
7 comments:
thanks Carl. Have a great weekend!
Ideal time to see a dip to the 840 level would be around of 10:30cst -The european cash close.
Something worth bearing in mind is that this is the 1st anniversary of the MLK weekend that saw those horrible falls in Asia/Europe and then that volatile Tuesday in the US.
Not sure what (if any) effect that'll have on the psychology of today's trade.
Looks like we've reached the 838-840 target area. Will wait until we climb back above 846.50 before going long for a run up to 865-870 area
Good risk reward for a long trade here as we test 50% retrace of 812.75-857.75 move.
Hi Carl,
Well, the 858.00 sell signal from earlier this week stopped the rally cold. If prices don't recover this afternoon it would appear the bear rally is back in town.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Looks like the bears-turned-bulls were wrong (incl. me)....
Carl, "supply shock"??
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