Monday, January 05, 2009

Guesstimates on January 5, 2009

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The market is approaching the 945 short term target.  Support is at 900. I still think that that the 1000 level will be reached this month. 

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The short term trend has turned downward and should carry the bonds to 130.  

March 10 Year Notes: The short term trend has turned downward and should carry the notes to 120. .  

Euro-US Dollar: The euro broke below support and will probably drop to 132 before a substantial rally can start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is underway. 

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Resistance above the market stands at 47.50. Crude will probably reach the 32-34 zone before a rally of $20 or more can begin.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range. 

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

3 comments:

Will Rahal said...

Carl,
I think that a ST top is imminent.
I have posted on intermediate term price momentum vs. Adv/Dec Volume
and the A/D Vol is not as strong as price momentum as seen during the start of the 2003 bull markwt.

Anonymous said...

Carl, I am selling some 950 Jan calls today and I sold my long ES on friday @ 930....
I think as well that ST we will correct.

cheers
Susn

Anonymous said...

....but if we close above 930 today or within the next couple of days then forget my opinion of a ST top because the S.T. Accelerator continues to rise high enough to boost the odds of an increase in upside momentum. The C-RSIs have technically reached a Neutral condition. If we get 2 days of a positive C-RSI reading, with the second day being higher, then the "Bear Market Up Condition" will move to a stage 2 Bear Market Rally where historically the move went on for 30 days or longer.

cheers
Susn