Spiders - March S&P E-mini Futures: The market is approaching the 945 short term target. Support is at 912. I still think that that the 1000 level will be reached this month.
QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.
TLT - March Bonds: The short term trend has turned downward and should carry the bonds to 130.
March 10 Year Notes: The short term trend has turned downward and should carry the notes to 120. .
Euro-US Dollar: The euro broke below support and will probably drop to 132 before a substantial rally can start.
Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is underway.
XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: It now looks like the $20 rally is already underway. Crude will probably continue upward to 55.00 but I expect a drop to 30-35 to follow.
GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range.
SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market. Resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.
Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.
1 comment:
hey carl
having just read your toughts on 2009 now , there is a few things
to note . ive been wrestling with my own work which points to a big turn in mid 2010 , there is a 2 year cycle which peaked in aug 2008 and it peaks again in july aug 2010 so were in agreement on that
the benner bussiness cycle points to a peak in 2010 and then a decline into 2011 followed by a
rise into 2018 which also correlates with your work to some degree . next i plot the dow's yearly ranges from 1914 to 2008
using this method i actually look at wave counts . this years range in the dow at 5830 points was historic yet not out of line with the yearly ranges trends over the past 94 years and from each of these major peaks based on elliot wave along with just basic trends
we should expect a lessor range in the dow this year and actully the average range should produce the most narrow range between 3 to 5 years out .so 2011-2013 somewhere in there we should expect the dow to trade in a range of somewhere near 1000 points so again we are in agreement . i use some odd ball cycles yet ill point them out
the most bullish cycles peaks
between these dates june 7 2010 to jan 3 2011 so again we are in agreement . now here is some more correlation my most bear cycle
is now turning down it tends to have a lagged effect on the stock market , it bottomes feb 15th 2009
whic means we are not out of the woods yet for a decline ( weather we aget a new low or not just noting this ) yet from early to mid march this cycle along with many others call for a run higher
into july aug 2009 and then the bearish cycle turns back down into
sept 2009 this is where things get tricky . we have a strong bearish cycle fighting several bullish cycles from sept oct 2009 and then
once we get through oct 2009 things turn up into jan 2010 where we get more conflicting cycles
early to mid 2010 is difficult to call because the bearish cycles will be points straght down from essentially feb 2010 into july 21 2010 and at the same time the strong bullish cycles call for further expansion from june 2010 to jan 2011 . the market might be in a narrowing range then which im not sure of at this point . yet after july 2010 the strong bearish cycles go away and at the same time the strong bullish cycles turn down following jan 2011 .
hence a strong bullish signal
should come from july 2010 to jan 2011 9 possible upward prices
and range expansion from the 2009
range
these 2 cycles is what im at odds with when i relate this to the benner bussiness cycle (2010 high in benner bussiness cycle would include the entire year i suppose ? ). to sum this up we are entering what should be a time frame over the next 3 to 5 years which should bring 1 year where the dow trades in a range of around 1000 points
we will be dealing with both bearish cycles and bullish cycles which are at near oposites to each other .
to sum this up i am in agreement with you on several thoughts
yet i think we should be looking out to 2011 as a more important top then 2010 . 2010 probably will be a top yet the cycles allow for
early 2011 as a high which by the way go contrary to the benner bussiness cycle unless you took the assumtion that the close of 2010 was included in the benner model .the benner bussiness cycle
has had a very good record over the past roughly 100 years so not something to discount .to be honest i want to be bearish the market yet my other technical work going back to 1928 shows this market as oversold as most all other major bear market bottomes
there is a very good case to be made that we did see the end of the bear market but for my own money i think it is prudent to
stay only lightly bullish until
mid march and then to turn bullish
around march 20 2009 and ill ride that cycle into june july where i
will once again re asses the market . this mayy sound odd yet ill add this as you tend to think about news covers . i tend to think about friends and relatives
comments and actions . with gold breaking above 1000 my ex wife asked my thoughts on gold i told here it had to be a top she never has asked me about trading before ever ( we have kids so we talk )
2 weeks ago my sister called me and ask me if she should get out of stocks , again she never has asked my thoughts about anything financial . and 3rd i have been trying to buy a house from a guy which has been somewhat of a challenge for me haaving sold my house in 2005 i have been waiting paitanitly to buy , these past 2 months i have looked at about 200 houses and have been trying to get this guy to drop his price , we agreed on a price and yet i let the deal fall apart because something just didnt feel right .
we began at 140000 and tentatively agreed at 120000 before i let deal fall apart , i came back later at 92000 and yesterday he asked me if id take it at 100000 . the recent appraisal came in at 140000 and my own thoughts are it is a fair value at 114000 . so the masses are eating up the media spin in a big way from what i see . im going to re write the offer at 96000
and let the guy take it or leave it . it is a 2855 sq foot house in a area of 120000 to 150000 dollar houses in southern oregon . it needs some work yet overall i think i can survive any continuation down if this happens
there are still many houses in the area roughly 20 to 30 percent overpriced and the sales data is begining to flat line .
2855 * 35 per sq feet is 99925
tell me where you can buy the materials to a buy a house that cheap .
good luck carl
joe
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