Here is a 30 minute bar chart of the last two week's action in the e-minis. I think a reaction from yesterday's 876 high is underway but I don't see any supply shock yet. So I think that this reaction will end at a higher low. My best guess is the lower of the two dashed purple lines ( at 823), both of which correspond roughly to the midpoints of reactions within the move from 797 to 876.At the moment it would take a rally above the green dashed line to convince me that the drop from 876 is over.
5 comments:
With the given trend, would this be a reasonable short entry point given the retrace back to around 823.
your insight is always appreciated
Carl'
Either way, this market is one very sick puppy. I just don't understand why it(S&P) just don't dive to 400-500 and get over with it. Then we can resume the rally where it belongs. But, no Wall St just wants to toy with the small guy and watch him bleed slowly.
Hi Carl,
I just went short at 843.00 at the opening of the evening session... my wife and I are heading out tomorrow morning on a 14 day cruise, and every time we go on a cruise these markets go south, our last cruise was in September and we all know what happend then... this time I'm not breaking with tradition, so I'll be short during our cruise... LOL!!! My stop is 873.00 GTC.
Thanks...
Kindest regards,
PM
Hey PM, you may be surprise to find your cruise is paid for when you come back...in any case Carl, I find that you are much better in analysing intraday trends...good work
2c
hey carl
we are into a bearish set up yet
according to the cycle this market
should head higher into feb 9th 11th before a collpase into march to complete this leg down from oct 2007. my guess is the cash spx holds near present levels and even though my gut says friday might be bearish , there is a timeline calling for a turn near the open which may just end up as the low of this short term reaction down
if so the cash spx will hold 832.39
and then head up towards 905 to complete this reaction move to the upside into feb 9th 11th .ideally what i need to see though is this
spx cash index holds above 827.69 is a must and from monday next week i need to see a rally into feb 9th 13 th . in doing this
and heading back above the 877.76 high the pattern will be complete
yet timeing wise the turn dates noted matter alot . so ill give it up to 905 and since everyone is bearish right now my bias is for more upside in the following week and then down . this market still has a few bearish cycles that have been driving it over the past year and they are pointing down into early to late march . so as noted many time before , we are not yet out of the woods yet on calling the bottom in place , i will say this though , if the dow was to go down to 6426 and close at or below 7861 on feb 27th ( the next short term cycle low due following the feb 9th 11 th high . then the long term indicators going all the way back to 1928 will put in an oversold reading which will be compariable to prior bear market bottoms . so to sum this up .
the bearish cycle we are entering
ends march 8th and the bullish cycle hits march 27th . we have a short term cycle date feb 27th which fits with in the march 8th date. hence we could see a final low in the feb 27th march 8th time frame yet the cycles turn bullish on march 27th . the price range of
in regards to the feb 27th close
calls for a move to 6426 as a print low and a close in the range of 7782.95-6671.55 ( ideal is just a close at or below 7861 yet the 6426 price level still needs to be hit before feb 27th ) in doing this all paramters for a final bottom based on long term indicators will be satisfied in relationship to many bear market lows going back to 1942 ( the data runs from 1928-to today and are longer term in nature so the 1932 bear market low does not show up in the data )
we are close to a final bottom
ill give you that yet as you have noted your not getting your buy signal ( demand shock or buy shock as you put it which is a warning sign ) im itching to get bullish
yet the cycles im following have some historical accuracy going back to the late 1700's and im not about to trade against them since they have been working this past year to well . good luck
joe
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