Here is the wave chart for today's e-mini trading. Support at 823 is nearby. We have seen two modest volume climaxes (red arrows). The last down wave was shorter than the preceding one. The moment of truth will come when the market encounters resistance at the purple dotted line (831). If it continues past resistance and then climbs above the green dashed line at 836 I will conclude that the drop from 876 is over. In any event I believe the market is now scraping bottom and that next week will be a generally bullish week.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Wave Chart at 11:45 am
Here is the wave chart for today's e-mini trading. Support at 823 is nearby. We have seen two modest volume climaxes (red arrows). The last down wave was shorter than the preceding one. The moment of truth will come when the market encounters resistance at the purple dotted line (831). If it continues past resistance and then climbs above the green dashed line at 836 I will conclude that the drop from 876 is over. In any event I believe the market is now scraping bottom and that next week will be a generally bullish week.
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8 comments:
ya you are always bullish figures. lets see you said 1000 by the end of January. Then a week or so ago you said in a few months. When are you going to conclude that you are wrong? Not sure how one can take the past two days as bullish?
Dear 12:11 pm:
I usually delete your comments, but this time I have two questions for you. Where is your blog? And, since you apparently have mastered the art of forecasting the past, how good are you at forecasting the future?
Carl,
Have you considered double-ETF's (SSO/SDS) as trading vehicles for your forecasts? What do you see as advantages of e-mini's over these?
Thanks!
Carl,
Thanks for the frequent updates.
Do you find market profile (summing volume traded at given prices) to be useful?
Perhaps you infer the profile from the time that is spent at given prices.
thanks
solrac
I prefer the e-minis because they are much more liquid and offer much higher leverage if I want to use it.
Long side ETF's are fine - I used to trade them - but short side ETF's(so-called inverse ETF's) can be very dangerous to your financial health. They may not even track the market properly!! In the past few months there was an inverse ETF based on a Chinese stock index which collapsed even while the Chinese stock market was collapsing. BEWARE of all Inverse ETF's. Indeed, the only ETF's you can rely on to track the market well are long side stock market ETFs with no leverage.
Hi Carl,
thanks for all your analysis. Are there other indicators you look at to identify volume shocks (demand/supply) other than the strength and breadth of up and down moves.
When you say the move from 876 is about to be over, what are the key things you look at.
Would appreciate any high level answer. I am planning to start a phd soon and am really thinking about price trends as a potential thesis.
cheers,
Hear hear Carl! The worst thing about denouncing your (generous) updates is hiding behind anonymity.
O.k. you want to know my ability I post on clearstation under the name montegobay I have very many accurate forcast I called this whole mess in NoV 07 i called for a drop of a lifetime about to hit. I also called many points accurately on turns higher and lower. So here is to all that think I hide behind anonymity. and by the way my post will stop on clearstation that group over like to rail me when I forecast lower.Strange but leads me not to post anymore.
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