Here is a 15 minute bar chart of the e-mini day session courtesy of Linnsoft's Investor/RT. The market didn't quite make it down to the low of my range estimate at 890. It has rallied back above the 898 low (red dashed line) and the trading that occurred below that level, a potential breakout level, was on very low volume.In contrast the rally back above the 898 low developed good volume (green arrows) - in fact higher volume than the first time the market rallied from 898 (green arrows). The rally has been bigger than yesterday's too (purple rectangles). These two facts have convinced me that a new upleg has begun. I expect it to carry the e-minis to 952, the next strong midpoint resistance level.
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One interpretation of the market's action is that the bulls aren't powering through, but buying on the dips and dollar cost averaging their positions downward as they prepare for the next leg up. If retail sales data tomorrow and WMT on Thursday show a revived consumer, then 952 is imminent. Otherwise, buying the dips may continue for the rest of the week, as the market moves to 880. It's true the bulls have lots of ammunition to power the market upwards, but it's also true they're content to buy the market as it moves down--for the moment. That's my take, for what it's worth.
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