How big a reaction?

Here is a 30 minute bar chart of the last few days' e-mini day session trading. Today has been a day dominated by sellers. The volume on the downside has been moderately high as compared with volume on down days over the past two weeks. The question I am mulling over now is just how big a reaction is underway.

Since I think this market is headed for 952 over the next couple of weeks I begin my assessment with a willingness to give the uptrend the benefit of the doubt. This is what you see illustrated in the chart above. The bullish way to read the past two days activity goes like this. There has been a range of about 9-10 points (green rectangle) which has contained most of the trading. This morning we broke to the upside, but sellers rejected this upside excursion (top blue rectangle). Now we are breaking to the downside (bottom blue rectangle). A downside break as big as the upside excursion would carry the market down to 898 or so. If the buyers are just waiting to spring a trap on unwitting sellers, this market will drop to 898 and then spring right back into the green rectangle.

If on the other hand the sellers get even more aggressive below 898 and buyers hold back, then I think this market will probably drop into the 855-865 range before beginning its next swing upward.