Monday, May 04, 2009

Range estimate revision

Here is a five minute bar chart of the e-mini day sessions. I am revising my range estimate to 879-900 (blue rectangle). The market has entered a strong resistance zone between 890 and 900 and I think it will have a tough time moving through it without first breaking 40-50 points. But if such a break lies ahead we should see a fair amount of sideways action first - this should take a couple of trading days to complete.

For the time being I am making no effort to anticipate the top. Instead I am still interested in buying 8-10 point reactions. Support for the rest of the day should be found near the breakout point of 886 (red dashed line). The market reacted about 11 points Friday afternoon and a reaction of similar size here would take it down to 884 or so (purple rectangles).

2 comments:

sandy allred said...

I am 100% in agreement with your analysis at this time. Thank you for articulating it so well.

sandy

rc said...

Carl.....I am expecting a little shallower pullday today than what we had Friday. As Mondays staistically pullback less once a strong trend is displayed.

FWIW.....thanks.