Here is a 30 minute bar chart of the last 10 days of e-mini day sessions. After yesterday's first hour the market became inactive and narrow. This pattern has continued today. I also note that the e-minis have bumped against an important midpoint (upper red dashed line) - the half way point between the 1067 rally high of last October 14 and the subsequent low on November 21 at 739. This combination of dullness at resistance makes me think that the market has to break in order to find enough new buyers before it can begin the next up swing.I am not expecting a substantial reaction. But a drop as big as the last three reactions would carry the e-minis down to 883-85 or so (purple rectangles). Midpoint support is at 874 (purple dotted line). The halfway point between the 1067 high and the bear market low at 666 is at 867 (lower red dashed line). So I think a drop of between 20 and 35 points has started. It will probably last a few trading days.
During this reaction I plan to look for chances to buy near temporary low points in anticipation of rallies of 10-15 points to lower tops. It is always difficult to predict the onset and extent of reactions such as this one, and trying to buy low points helps to insure that I shall be on board when the next upswing begins.
After this reaction I expect the e-minis to rally to 940.
2 comments:
Fakeout on the pull back. We bounced of the ES pivot twice and we are likely to close around 900 which would be about 2-4 points or so above the next day's pivot at 898. This pattern has the Bob Rubin futures driven tape painting signature. Tomorrow we should see 920 or so on the ES.
Enjoy reading your blog. Just wondering how do you get to drawing your box? Is it something that you mind sharing?
Thanks
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