Here is a 30 minute bar chart of e-mini day session trading. I thought I saw a supply shock this morning but the market has since retraced all of the shock bar (horizontal green line). The prices below 890 have been decisively rejected (green rectangle). This means that long time frame buyers were taking advantage of this morning's selling to increase their long positions.Consequently I now think we have seen the day's low. I estimate that today's range will be 887 - 908 (blue rectangle). Contrary to the inference I drew earlier today from the supply shock I think this market is now headed for 950-80.
9 comments:
Thanks, Carl, for both posts today. Your views would suggest that you would short bonds, via TBT perhaps, or go long the PMs. Will you?
I concur with your views - so far the market does suggest that the government's inflationary policies are working. But I am not so sanguine about the future. We may have avoided the depression, but we still have low growth, high debt and high inflation ahead.
I will continue holding my position in SDS that is up significantly from yesterday. Note that it did not reach a lower low than what occurred at 9:30-10:00. It expect it to move higher today.
Hey F&.. I bought some under 58.5 today and I must admit I am surprised at the recent weakness... It will be interesting to see where we end up!
Wow, thank goodness for stop losses.. I guess the 7yr note auction was well received....
You are both playing with SDS fire, in all likelyhood you will end up burnt.
I'm not day trading like Carl, so I'm not as concerned with today's price action on its own. What the spike up says to me is that we're having a typical reaction to the full wave down move from yesterday and this morning, and it will complete soon. Once this up wave is done, we shall begin dropping again to Carl's original low target of 850-ish, or even perhaps below.
If we surpass yesterday's high, this scenario would be negated.
Thanks for the warning dknk but I think I am ok. Thanks again Carl for all of your comments and insight!
I like your views for longer term lower bond prices but think a multi-month low at 3.75% yield is upon us now. MK
Carl,
What theory and criteria do you use to develop your boxes?
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