Monday, May 04, 2009

This afternoon and tomorrow

Here is a five minute chart of today's e-mini day session. After selling my long position this morning I expected to buy it back near 887 or a little lower. But once the market made a new high for the day (and for the two month rally) above the red dashed line I had to reevaluate the situation. I believe that when you are bullish you have to pretty much be long all the time, but especially when the market moves to new high ground for the move.

So I repurchased my long position with the view that the modest retracement indicated a strong market. I was looking for a swift move to 905 or so. Instead the e-minis traded sideways and then began to break - something I wasn't expecting - so I got out. The market then went once more to a new high for the day, so I repurchased half of my long position. This time the market traded sideways in a narrow range for more than an hour - again not what I expected to see and not characteristic of a strong market. So I got out of my position again.

In the event a rally during the last 10 minutes of NYSE trading has pushed the futures up to 903.00 so far. I think the market will make it ot 905 or so later today or tomorrow, but I also think that tomorrow's range will be 885-905. The long hesitation we saw today in the 896-899 range is an indication that trading tomorrow will be dominated by sellers.

3 comments:

Valentin said...

Carl,
again very insightful for beginners like me. Especially, when the S&Ps are crossing "old junctures". Greetings from Germany, Val

KBSC said...

Carl....you are in an elite class. Keep up the great work !

Unknown said...

Just had trouble borrowing shares to short of GS from Inter Brokers Hmmm