Friday, May 01, 2009

Update at 1:30 pm

Here is a five minute bar chart of the e-mini day sessions. I just sold my entire long position at 873.50. Why? First of all, trading has been very dull all day and today is Friday. This makes me think that today's range is going to be relatively narrow - the high is not likely to be above 880. So this puts a limit on the upside potential for the day. Secondly, the market had rallied to the high of a trading range which extends roughly from 864 to 874 (green rectangle). It did this on a minor climax bar (red arrows). Since I had taken a loss on my first position of the day (this itself was a sign of weakness on the part of the bull account) I chose to play defense with my second position in light of these considerations. The net result has been slightly positive for the day.

If the market is indeed going higher today the midpoint of the day's range (purple dotted line) should act as support for the rest of the day.

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