This is a one minute bar chart of today's e-mini day session. I went long two units of the e-minis early this morning at an average of 867.75. I figured that yesterday's daytime low at 864.50 would hold. Contrary to my expectations, the market broke that low (red dashed line) and appeared to be accelerating lower. So I got out of my long position.
But then a very unusual thing happened. Normal behavior after a breakout is a volume surge - in this case I expected more sellers to show up. Instead I saw the market trade sideways for nearly 15 minutes without making any downside progress (green oval). The 1 minute bars themselves were very narrow, showed a lot of overlap, and the volume was low. All of this suggested that the sellers didn't want to come to the party. So I put back half of my long postion. I didn't repurchase the full postion because this conclusion was based purely on volume/activity considerations. I want to see prices rally as well before I repurchase the rest of my position. A move above midpoint resistance near 867.50 (purple dotted line) would be a bullish indication.
Given this situation I am going to stick with my range estimate for the day and will look for a high in the 880-85 zone.
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