Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Still a positive day
Guesstimates on August 31, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1025-1045. The ES has dropped all the way back to Friday's low. This is a bearish development. I now think the market is headed for 1010-15.
QQQQ: Headed for 42.50 where I expect a higher low to be established.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.
Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.
October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Update
Guesstimates on August 30, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: Friday's price action was very bullish. Today's range estimate is 1055-1075. I still think that the 1037 low ended the drop from 1127. I also think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.
Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.
October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Out of my office today
See you Monday!
Guesstimates on August 27, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1047-1064. I still think that the 1037 low ended the drop from 1127. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.
Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.
October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Tomorrow
Right now I think the 1037 level will hold, but a weak close today, say below 1044, would mean that the market is about to take another step downwards to 1025.
Guesstimates on August 26, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: I think yesterday's 1037 low ended the drop from 1127. Today's range estimate is 1050-1067. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.
Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.
October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Hmmm....
Here is a daily chart of the e-mini futures. I thought you classical bar chartists out there would be interested in this.
Amidst spasms of pessimism the market has reached an oversold condition at the point labeled "RS" on this chart. This could well be the right shoulder of a classic inverse head and shoulders formation. I haven't noticed anyone commenting on this on the web, so I think it stands a good chance of developing an upside breakout of the neckline (horizontal green dash line). If it does the upside potential would be measured by the size of the rally from the head to the neckline, about 125 points, added to the neckline level itself. This works out to be the 1250 level.
Very bullish
Here is a thirty minute bar chart showing day session e-mini trading. This morning the ES kissed the bottom of its trend channel on the new home sales number. At the same time it nearly reached the 1136.75 low of May 25 and dropped below the 1141 low of June 8.
Since then it has rallied steadily. As I write this the market has managed to climb above yesterday's day session midpoint at 1051 and has rallied 17 points versus yesterdays 14 point rally. This action means that buyers are taking control of the market and suggest that this morning's low at 1037 will end the drop from 1127, the August 5 top.
Today's day session midpoint at the moment is 1045.50 and I expect the market to close above that level. If it does the stage will be set for a bullish day tomorrow.
The initial rally off of the 1037 low will probably halt temporarily near 1070 at which point it would equal the size of the biggest rally on the way down to 1037 (blue rectangles). After a 15-20 point reaction from that level I think the market will take off in a move that will carry it well above 1127.
Guesstimates on August 25, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today I'll be watching the market's action relative to two recent lows: The May 26 low at 1036.75 and the June 8 low at 1041.75. A break below either of these lows followed by a fast, substantial rally would mean that the trend has turned upward. I estimate today's day session range will be 1034-1054. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.
Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.
October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Late Update
This leads me to believe that the ES will reach the 1035-40 zone tomorrow and there establish the low of the drop from 1127. Failing that I would interpret a move above today's day session high at 1058.25 very bullishly.
Low in place
If this is the correct read then today's day session midpoint (at 1050.25 thus far) will act as support for the rest of the session. Moreover I expect to see a close today at or above the midpoint of the day session range.
Quick Update
Guesstimates on August 24, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today I'll be watching the market's action relative to the May 6 low at 1056 and the July 20 low at 1051. I am expecting a low to form today and from that low a rally above the 1127 level. Today's range estimate is 1047-1067. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.
Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support this morning. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.
October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Monday, August 23, 2010
??????
Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing day session e-mini trading. Early this morning I thought that Friday's action meant that Friday's low would hold. But the market took a peek above Thursday's high at 1078 and there sellers took over. At today's low thus far (1067.25) I thought the prospects for a drop to 1055 later today and early tomorrow were good. So I sold a 4 point rally on the hypothesis that the market would soon continue its morning break.
Instead the ES rallied for a greater period of time that it took on the way down from this morning's high. Friday's midpoint at 1067 (dash green line) had held in the meantime. And the market over the past three days had built a trading range (lower purple oval) that is bigger than the 1085-1098 range (upper purple oval) from which it dropped about 37 points.
These observations warn of building bullish potential and I didn't want to stick around to find out if this was the case so I covered. Right now I don't see any convincing opportunities, but if the market closes above today's midpoint at 1073.75 I will conclude that the bulls are back in control and that tomorrow will be a bullish day. Failing that kind of close I will retain a mildly bearish (down to 1055) stance.
Update
Comments
Guesstimates on August 23, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: On Friday the market dropped briefly below its August 16 low at 1066.25 and later closed well above that level and near the high of Friday's range. This makes me think that the drop from 1127 high on August 5 is over. We may yet see a low near 1055 early this week but I am no longer betting on it. I estimate today's day session range will be 1068-1085. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is imminent. Support is at 85.50.
October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Guesstimates on August 20, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1060-1075. I am expecting a low near 1055 early next week. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is imminent. Support is at 85.50.
October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Guesstimates on August 19, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: The 1080-84 zone is critical today. Weakness below 1080 will mean that the market is headed down to 1050-60. But I am betting that 1080 will hold and that the drop below 1084 than occurred just after the employment claims number came out this morning is a false downside breakout. I am estimating a 1080-1100 range for today. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. The 2.65% level now looks like support. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.
September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Guesstimates on August 18, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: I think yesterday's action was an upside trading range breakout. Today's range estimate is 1084-1104. The market is headed for the 1140 level. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. The 2.65% level now looks like support. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.
September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Another update
Quick update
Listening to the market
Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing regular hours trading in the e-minis. After spending three days trading below the last low at 1083.50 (horizontal green dash line) the market today opened well above it. So far it has traded as high as 1090.75 which puts it right at the top of a small trading area that formed late on August 11 (red arrows).
Any strength above 1092 and especially a close today above 1085 will be very bullish. It would represent an upside breakout from the lower blue dash trading area, one that is almost as big as the one which started this break (blue rectangles). Such action would make me abandon my 1050-60 target and start looking for continuation upward to 1140 and higher.
Guesstimates on August 17, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: The 1050-60 range is still my downside target. Today's range estimate is 1070-1090. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Short term downside target is now 43.50
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. The 2.65% level now looks like support. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.
September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Guesstimates on August 16, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: The 1050-60 range is still my downside target. Today's range estimate is 1060-1080. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Short term downside target is now 43.50
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. The 2.65% level now looks like support. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.
September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Guesstimates on August 13, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: The 1050-60 range is now my downside target. Today's range estimate is again 1068-1088. I still think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. The market bounced off of 44.50 support yesterday but there is still no sign of a low in the making. Short term downside target is now 43.50
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. The 2.65% level now looks like support. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.
September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Guesstimates on August 12, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has already dropped 50 points from its high but the decline shows no sign of being complete. The 1050-60 range is now my downside target. Today's range estimate is 1068-1088. I still think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Short term downside target is now support is now 44.50
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. The 2.65% level now looks like support. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.
September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Revised range estimate
Supply shock
Yesterday afternoon I thought that the market was responding positively to the Fed announcement. But the situation changed rapidly after the close. And this morning it looks to me like a genuine supply shock (red arrows on lower chart) has hit the market.Take a look at the 30 minute bar chart of day session trading in the ES. I have highlighted the trading range breakout level (horizontal dash line). During today's first 30 minutes of regular trading the market stayed entirely below this level and closed in the lower part of its 30 minute bar. Observe that the volume was the highest of the past three weeks (dash red oval) for a down bar, and even higher than for any up bar with one exception.
Yesterday morning I was talking about the beginning of a 50 point break (although I changed my mind after the Fed announcement). My reasons for thinking such a break is underway are even stronger now. Take a look at the upper chart, a point and figure chart with five point boxes and a one box reversal.
Observe how the bases built since early July have grown narrower (green ovals) while the top areas (red ovals) have grown wider. This is a warning that the bearish market potential is building. What concerned me yesterday was that the most recent top area is almost as big as the base that supported the July-August rally, and is bigger than the top area that led to a 120 point break from the June 21 high to the July 5 low.
Today's activity is a clearly defined breakout from the top that has formed during August. A count across this congestion area (horizontal red line) suggests that a drop to 1060 is underway. However, I think this target will prove to be a bit pessimistic since I believe that the bigger trend that started from the July 5 low at 1003 remains upward. So I am guessing the downside will be limited to 1070-75.
Guesstimates on August 11, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: I had thought that yesterday's close above 1116 meant that the ES was on its way to 1145-50. But sellers took back control of the market right after the close, dropping the ES to 1101.75 by early this morning. This moves me back to my scenario of an ongoing, 50 point break. Today's range estimate is 1090-1110. Even so, I still think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Short term support is 45.50
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. The 2.65% level now looks like support. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.
September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Update
If the ES can close above 1116 today I think the swing to 1145-50 will resume.
Encouraging Words
In my opinion it is critical that the Fed convince the market that it will NOT shrink its balance sheet and NOT reverse the quantitative easing steps it took during 2008 and 2009. Why? Employment and corporate investment depends almost entirely on expectations for GDP growth. These growth expectations in turn depend almost entirely on expected tax rates and upon the expected growth of the Fed's balance sheet. Tax rates are still expected to go up (although the November elections may change the situation dramatically). But this afternoon's announcement by the Fed shows that it is changing its mind about its previously announced plan to shrink its balance sheet. This is a change for the better as far as expectations for economic growth go.
This is a very bullish development for the U.S. economy.
Guesstimates on August 10, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: I think the market's action yesterday and early this morning is telling us that a 50 point drop is in the works. A close today below the 1111 level would confirm this prognosis. Today's range estimate is 1102-1122. Even so, I still think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Initial target is 47.50.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.
September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.
Monday, August 09, 2010
Trade Wiser
One great boon to the small trader and investor has been the growth of the electronic brokerage industry. I only started trading electronically about 6 years ago and I love it. Commissions are low since you are paying only for execution, not for advice. Bid-ask spreads have narrowed a lot because of the great volume of trading that electronic trade matching permits. Best of all, if you do a little shopping and price comparison online you can figure out which e-broker offers the best deal for your own type of trading - options, stocks, forex, etc.
Recently I was doing some comparison shopping and came across a new site, TradeWiser. TradeWiser lets you compare the deals offered by about 20 electronic brokers (including E*Trade, TD-Ameritrade, Trade Station Securities, Interactive Brokers, Fidelity). The comparisons are for stock, option, and forex trading. (Sadly, TradeWiser does not evaluate futures brokers, but they assure me that this capability is in the works.)
What kind of comparisons can you make on TradeWiser?
The most straightforward ones are the head-to-head comparisons. Pick any two of the 2o electronic brokers on their list. As I am writing this I clicked on the Scottrade vs E*Trade comparison and this is what come up:
You can also look at the electronic broker rankings for selected criteria: commission levels, trading platforms, customer service, options trading, reviews, to name some.
A third feature is the capability for estimating the yearly commission costs you would pay at any of these 20 firms base on the types and sizes of the trades you make. This is a much more detailed commission comparison than the superficial information appearing in the head-to-head comparison shown above.
Finally, Tradewiser offers discount deals negotiated with some of the 20 brokers which may be better than you could do on your own. (Caveat- I haven't investigated these deals on my own so I don't know just how much they might save you. Still, they seem worth a look.)
Due diligence is very important in selecting a broker, so I always seek as many opinions and facts as I can find. For this reason TradeWiser is a valuable addition to the trader's toolkit. The site will give him information that will help keep trading costs low. Many of you have asked me about my own brokerage arrangements. I prefer to keep these confidential. But I will say this. I choose my brokers by doing online comparison shopping of the sort that TradeWiser has just made a lot easier.
Guesstimates on August 9, 2010
September S&P E-mini Futures: The complete recovery of the drop triggered by Friday's bearish employment report is very bullish action. I think the ES is now headed for 1145-50. Today's range estimate is 1117-1132. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.
QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Initial target is 47.50.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.
Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.
September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.
Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.