Friday, August 06, 2010

third update

A strong selling wave has developed. I now think we have seen a genuine breakout from the 1112-1128 trading range.

A drop about equal to the last drop would carry the market down into the 1090-95 range over the next day or two. I think this is just a normal interruption in the up trend that began from the July 5 low at 1002.75

18 comments:

ciscochen said...

Carl,
thaks for the updates, I reversed to short this morning too.

spycharter said...

It's still possible that we see further downside in the next few days but it hinges on whether ES breaks and holds below the uptrend line that has been established since the low at 1003. If ES can stay above this trendline then I think ES will return to 1120+. But if ES drops below this trendline then ES is headed for 1091.

Fang Dog said...

Carl,

You don't see this the third failure to break out of the top end of the trading range (since late May)?

Doesn't this show we will test the low end of the range again around 1020 - 1050?

dcatlowpj said...

I am seeing some support at 1097. This is a range day after all but we will likely see some support at 1103 as well... I am a waiting for a U-turn at 1197 but will look for a confirmation once we re-establish a move back above $1100. I will be swinging the SSO...time will tell. Obama is on right now talking up the private sector job growth even though the real job growth is not there....I cannot find a single person who is feeling good about the economy. So, does that point in itself make us long net traders? HMMMM. Enjoying the blog and Carl's postings. That was a good stop today, Carl.

extrader said...

I think next week we will be sub 1000 to close Mondays gap.... prolly around the 95-98 area!

Naveedah said...

Keep in mind that while today’s trading is ugly, the sp500 is still up ~0.7% on the week (and is still up >7.5% QTD).
Treasuries: Treasuries have rallied this morning and are trading near their highs. The 2s are yielding 0.51%, but reached to a sub 0.5% level for the first time ever (Bloomberg) The 10s are yielding 2.825% and the 2-10 spread has flattened to yield 2.315%.
THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR ALL UP DATES!
Have great week end w/your loved ones.

tempo said...

If the FED minutes released on Tuesday include revised language calling for an expansion of the FED balance sheet, equities will rally 10% before the election. If there is no change, the sell off will continue. It is likely there will be a change in the language triggering a rally. This is politics, pure and simple.

mikeQ said...

Current ending diaginal in the indexes implies a sharp move down when it's over - ideally we should see one more up move to the top of the traingle (1140 - 1150) prior to the downward move. It could truncate though and break the up-sloping trendline that is forming the bottom of the ED. This is a very reliable pattern and we should know early next week. Lower prices dead ahead.

siricor said...

Hey Carl,

Do you have another update for us?
Market has made a very strong push here...
Are you keeping with your current short-term market forecast?


Thanks as always!!

Jeff said...

Carl,

No disrespect intended but you are definitely having a difficult time getting a feeling for this market. I am at a loss as to your entries. I am looking near the time and price posted and you are buying when there is a clear downtrend I would guess hoping for support. That was the only time the price posted was available in the morning. Those are poor entry choices. You have been suffering the same problems with most of your recent trades. wouldn't waiting for a breakout above the support you were watching provided a better LONG entry because that would have at least provided some strength to the support. On a 5 minute chart the candles during that time were all lower high lower low. Your saving grace is you stop your losses very well so I guess you can afford to make those types of choices but there are far better entries today then the one you chose. I hope you are taking this critical analysis with an open mind. I learn from everything myself and I appreciate the time you go through to publish this blog.This was the first time I checked your entry price. Keep up the good fight.

Narayana said...

Looking forward to your 4th update where you say that the market is going up from here.

Edwin said...

Futia's BOX rules AGAIN!

Strong hand Bulls passed the test today!

I added long positions today and I am ready to buy the coming breakout, if and when it comes.

Folks...Have a nice weekend.

Naveedah said...

Closing 1119.50.
However, the SP quietly climbed another 1.5% over the last 5 sessions (and is now up ~8.5% so far QTD w/some groups up a lot more, like industrials +12%, materials +14%, and the transports up 14%)real

Win said...

Drat. Shorted at ES 1111. After this jobs report, I should have seen the helicopter on the horizon.

Naveedah said...

Meeting Coming Up On Tues Aug 10 (2:15pmET). WhattheysaidonJune23:“Information receivedsincetheFederalOpenMarket Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. Household spending is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level”
Outlook for Aug 10: this language will probably be downgraded slightly. The recovery will probably still be characterized as “proceeding” (i.e. there isn’t a contraction occurring) but the tone around labor, spending, housing, etc, will prob. sound more cautious.
12:03am in London,still dealing w/todays trades.
The very first guess estimates were the best one and worked till end.
GN!
Thanks for all Help!
GN!

E said...

Mr Futia, all I can say is I learn from you every day.

You shrug off negative comments and stay focused on telling it how you see it.

I appreciate your posts. Markets can turn on a dime and today was another example of that.

Thanks for your insights and have a great weekend.

tempo said...

Carl is real trader who sets specific entry and stop loss sell targets. He limits his losses and lets his profits run. His track record is very impressive over the past few years. I learned a painful lesson when I did not set a stop loss on a trade when the SPX was 1200. Thanks again Carl and have a great weekend.

kcounty said...

tech analysis reads like a big tree of if/then statements. i am very thankful for carls free analysis, cuz after paying for a few: his 2-3 paragraphs a day are exactly what you get from the pay-per-play game.