Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Guesstimates on August 24, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today I'll be watching the market's action relative to the May 6 low at 1056 and the July 20 low at 1051. I am expecting a low to form today and from that low a rally above the 1127 level. Today's range estimate is 1047-1067. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support this morning. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 470 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

7 comments:

Ivan said...

Dear Carl,
I think, EURUSD has done it already on upside... Could go to max 1.30 but I don't expect that... Main direction is down...

Edwin said...

1055 is the trednline from the July low.

I will be watching VIX as the clue for market direction. Specifically, a breakout above the 50 day SMA would imply further SPX weakness.

extrader said...

Today Im looking for 1045 if we lose 1050 and possibly retest the 1038 lows.... The one thing that is still a negative i dont see any oversold conditions on my indicators!

ex

dcatlowpj said...

A rather confused range today. Will we seek a "true low" of under 1050? It seems that you are saying look for support at over 1050 but the range is lower???

spycharter said...

ES will find support at a trendline connecting the March 2009 low and the July 2010 low, ~1048. If ES doesn't hold above this trendline, well, then, look out below!!

dcatlowpj said...

I have same trendline on my chart, SPYcharter....looking at Volume confirmation here.

Naveedah said...

Key supports this week are 1059-1056: 1059- Apr DTline, 1057- July 20 low, 1056- July 1 62% retr. Breaks to 1040.
Must hold 1040...
BEARS full in control,now.
Thanks!