Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Revised range estimate

Today's supply shock is telling us that the day session high is in at 1101.50. So far the day session low has been 1088.25. My best guess is that the market will trade down to 1083 by the time the day session is complete. Meantime resistance above the market stands at 1096 for the rest of the session.

10 comments:

raven said...

do we bounce and go to 1150 from 1083? It seems the most logical.

Ivan said...

Dear Carl,
I think, we have just seen the low for the next 12 months... Only up from here...

Trading The Charts said...

Well even I was taken by surprise by the jump up in USD today. I still have a sneaky feeling that USD index will hit 77/78 before a concerted uptrend begins. I hope so because I dont have any in the money puts yet.There is still the possibilty that we have seen the bottom. Are there other possible outcomes ofcourse there are, there always remains the possibilty that I am totally wrong and the dollar will continue to go down and down...

mikeQ said...

In Elliott Wave terms, the USD is just starting a Wave 3 up which means that it will advance in a very strong upward movement - commodities and equities will fall as a result. This scenario also fits wtih the deflationary environment we appear headed for - that is assets decline and USD rises since most global debt is denominated in USD.

Mark said...

The dollar will not stop until it hits the previous highs..most likely pasue before blowing through the June highs like they were never there and it may stall at 102.

You can figure out how the rest of the markets will trade. 880 spx by the end of August. There is an imbalance of liquidity in this market.

The crazy part, we had the same thing in April-and it has become even more lopsided. Flash crashes will be the norm for the next 3-6 weeks.

catherine said...

I wish I was an sanguine as everyone here. The market is confirming what bonds and the yen have been saying for a while.

Naveedah said...

All day I was so confused after this Elliot wave theory application.I would like to stay simple and then I listened toYOU and shorted @1090,1084.25..covered @1074.50,1075.
Mentioning this long story is an expression of gratitude.
Its all your help,Sir.
Stay safe and sound for us.
GN!

raven said...

Ivan, I think you are spot on were going up in a big way.

Trading The Charts said...

USD index is going to 112/114
I stated yesterday the USD was on the brink of a huge move. now its a case of when to buy my in the money puts. i did it in oil a few days ago but didnt stay for the move. I covered friday ahead of the FED. Will not give away healthy profits.
It easy to make money in these markets and its easy to lose money and much more...ALAYS ALWAYS DYOR, blame yourself when it goes wrong and dont be too hasty to pat your self on the back when it goes well!

BxCapricorn said...

A thought. If the stock market is controlled by trading robots, using algorithms, to influence or directly control 70% of all trades...why are you drawing lines on charts? Why are Elliot Wave theorists using wave counts? Wouldn't it be wiser to backward engineer the formula being used, with the data that is the stock market performance?