Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Guesstimates on August 25, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today I'll be watching the market's action relative to two recent lows: The May 26 low at 1036.75 and the June 8 low at 1041.75. A break below either of these lows followed by a fast, substantial rally would mean that the trend has turned upward. I estimate today's day session range will be 1034-1054. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Laurence said...

Carl, A substantial rally could simply be a result of a big bounce off very oversold conditions. Counter trend moves can be fast furious.

extrader said...

Failure to go about 1050 within the first hr of trading leads me to believe we will be going down today perhaps 1036 and then 1029!


Naveedah said...

Had a good trade but I find so difficult to be convinced on bearish side and looking for 1050..
1037 was the low expected for me and holding longs.

catherine said...

I am looking at usd jpy. Held 84 all night and all today. I took all shorts off a while ago and think we will see some stability or a small rise today.
Bonds are also drifting slightly lower. Gold found resistance at 1240. If it falls that is also bullish for stocks here on a short term basis. + we are hitting the support levels.