Friday, August 06, 2010

Guesstimates on August 6, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: The bearish employment numbers this morning send the ES down to 1111.25 as I write this. I think this will turn out to be a false breakout from the 1112-1128 trading range that was established this week. Today's range estimate is 1107-1122. The market has resumed its move to 1145-50. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Initial target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.

September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


siricor said...

As always, thank you for your insight! Let's see how things go today!!

fletcher said...

Hi Carl, I'd love to hear a more detailed opinion on Treasury yields (TNX) from you. For some time your daily guesstimate has indicated an expectation for a rise to 4.9%, yet they have refused to go higher, resulting in the SPX / TNX correlation breaking down to a degree since mid- July.

If bonds are supposedly smarter than stocks, doesn't this portray trouble for equities? Moreover isnt it also an interesting corollary to the contrarian standpoint in that firstly bonds get far less mainstream attention than equities despite market size? Or have you observed a significant media expectation for lower yields?

I would also be interested to hear whether you are currently in the inflationary / deflationary (or neither) camp as this seems to be a fairly important debate with (is it equal) support on both sides.

Best regards to you as always.