Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Guesstimates on November 16, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1183-1199. I think a low near 1183 has a good chance of ending the drop from 1224.75. In any case, once that drop is complete the march to 1300 will resume.

QQQQ: Support is at 52.00 and the next upside target is 57.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro shows no signs of a top. Next target is 143.50.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

December Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market still has the bit between its teeth. Next upside target is 1480.

SLV - December Silver: I see no sign that the rhythm of the advance has faltered. Next stop is 31.60.

Google: The 475 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.


Kishore said...

My first target for the down-slide is 1172, a mere 38.2% retracement of the Ben's QE rally from 1084.

But considering that bulls have all their eggs in Ben's QE basket, the basket bottom can fall out too, any time.

Moreover, as we are all connected, a sovereign default in Europe can not be without affecting us.

California, many other US states, and the Munis are also ripe for the further trashing.

Kishore said...

We are heading for at least July lows over the next couple of months.

MKS said...

Even though I do not belong to the group of "Carl Worshippers" I have to give credit where it is due.
By nature I am a very cautious bear/bull who only trades the highest probability setups.
When Uber-bull Carl said around 1224 that we are ready for a pull back to about 1187 or so. I shorted 5 ES futures with a scaled stop loss between 1229-1231 and a profit objective between 1180-1187 (since Carl always underestimates the strength of correction).
This, in my mind is the highest probability trade. And , as usual has netted me an average of 30 point profit per contract.
Thank you Carl

Kishore said...

Does the monstrous volume during the sell-off today qualify it as Carl's "supply shock"?

Can the QE BS stop the exit?

Will there be enough chairs when the music stops?

Incidentally, the insiders have been selling for a long time. Major investors have been liquidating and Mutual Fund redemptions have been at record rates.

Who will hold the bag to 1300? The high priests of the "Bull Market"??

extrader said...


Great Call on ur 72 prediction!