Thursday, November 18, 2010

Guesstimates on November 18, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1180-1197. This rally from the 1171 low point will probably be followed by another leg downward which will carry into the 1130-1150 zone. Once that drop is complete the march to 1300 will resume.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro should find support at 133.00 and the move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

December Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The 1310-20 zone should be strong support for the market. A move to new highs is likely to begin soon.

SLV - December Silver: Support is at 23.50 and a move to new highs should begin from there.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.


Chas said...

Carl, what do you think the short-term top will be?

R said...

I envy your ability to estimate. My range estimate before opening, would have been 1175-1190

"another leg downward which will carry into the 1130-1150 zone"

I am not so sure about 1130-1150 range. I think the next leg down is likely to be a higher low in the 1185-1190 range. There seems to be decent support in that range. During the entire second half of Oct, sp500 was slowly crawling thru 1185-1190 range without any gap to cover.