Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Guesstimates on November 17, 2010

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1166-1184. While I think yesterday's drop was the max momentum day of this break my best guess now is that the ES will move a little lower today, then rally for a couple of days. That rally will then probably be followed by another leg downward which will carry into the 1130-50-zone. Once that drop is complete the march to 1300 will resume.

QQQQ: Support is at 49.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro should find support at 133.00 and the move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

December Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The 1310-20 zone should be strong support for the market. A move to new highs is likely to begin soon.

SLV - December Silver: Support is at 23.50 and a move to new highs should begin from there.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.

1 comment:

Edwin said...


You are painting a similar scenario to July 2009 when SPX' 200 day MA was tested around 860 and the weak hands eliminated.. Hmmmm. I like it.

This would be a 7+% correction which is normal and healthy.